Heat will build up midweek in Melbourne as anticipation builds for Saturday’s AFL Grand Final between the Brisbane Lions and the Fremantle Dockers at the MCG, but Saturday will bring a burst of cooler weather with the chance of relatively light showers.
Melbourne’s forecast maximum for AFL Grand Final day this Saturday, September 26, is 19°C.
The apparent or "feels like" temperature will be a little cooler during the game due to southerly winds and should be around 14 or 15 degrees.
Light showers are possible during the game, although showers are slightly more likely in the morning.
"Spring see saw" in full effect in Melbourne
The classic “spring see-saw” is in full swing in Melbourne this week.
After a maximum of 28.5°C on Sunday (the warmest September day in three years), Monday’s high was just 14.5°C, while a maximum of 17°C is expected this Tuesday under sunny skies.
The temperature will begin to rise again midweek with a maximum around 27°C on Thursday, then another warm day peaking around 26°C on Friday.
A weak cold front then passes over Tasmania on Friday night, with just enough cool air reaching southern Victoria on Saturday to drop Melbourne’s maximum back into the high teens.
Image: Forecast maximums across Victoria on Saturday, September 26, 2026, according to the ECMWF model, showing cooler air reaching southern Vic. Source: Weatherzone.
Chances of rainfall on grand final day
A shower or two is likely along parts of the Victorian coastline from Friday night through to Saturday afternoon.
The likelihood of any rain at the MCG on grand final day is as high as 50% in the morning, although the probability of showers reduces slightly as we approach the start of the match at 2:30 pm.
Image: Accumulated rainfall totals for Victoria and parts of nearby states according to the ECMWF model up until 10 pm (AEST) on Monday, September 28, 2026. Source: Weatherzone.
While the likely absence of significant rainfall on grand final day is good news for spectators and viewers hoping for a fast, flowing game of footy, the city of Melbourne could use a decent drop of rain.
After a winter where rainfall totals were close to the long-term average, just 14.2 mm of rainfall has been recorded to date this September in Melbourne. The monthly average is 56.8 mm.
This month has also been much warmer than usual to date in Melbourne, with average minimums currently trending at almost two degrees above the long-term September average, while maximum temperatures have been slightly more than one degree above the long-term September average.
For the benefit of Lions and Dockers fans who are visiting from interstate, the mercury in Melbourne will start to swing back upwards on Sunday, with a maximum of 23°C expected, followed by a high of 27°C on Monday.