No significant snowfalls are indicated on the forecast models for at least the next week, meaning the 2026 Australian snow season will head towards spring with a relatively meagre snow pack and serious questions over the longevity of ski lift operations.

On August 13, the snow depth reached a running season peak of almost a metre at Spencers Creek (elevation 1830 m) – the highest of three NSW sites where hydro-electric operator Snowy Hydro has regularly measured the snowpack in the cooler months since 1954.

Last week’s 94.5 cm has dropped to 90.2 cm this Wednesday, August 19, due to relatively warm conditions. With rain starting to develop across the mountains today, and with no signs of significant snowfalls over the next two weeks, expect the graph to continue downwards.

Wrong weather patterns for snowfalls

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently in a neutral phase, meaning the band of westerly winds that circulate the globe over the Southern Ocean is neither more nor less likely (for this time of year) to deliver snow-producing cold fronts to southern Australia.

Under a neutral SAM (or even a positive SAM which pushes the westerlies further south towards Antarctica), there's still always the chance that a strong system with polar origins will defy the underlying trend and push northwards towards the Australian Alps.

READ MORE: What is the SAM and how does it affect Australia?

Unfortunately for snow enthusiasts and businesses that depend on the snow trade, there’s no sign of a significant outbreak of cold air with polar origins for at least the next week.

Instead, there is only unseasonable warmth, with occasional influxes of moisture which has originated over the tropical waters northwest of Australia.

As a follow-up to the rainfall developing this Wednesday which is expected to continue into Thursday, it now looks increasingly likely that another rain event will develop across southeastern Australia early next week. That will mean more rain for the mountains, with snow possible only at the highest elevations.

Image: Four-hour satellite and radar loop to 1 pm (AEST) on Wednesday August 19, 2026, showing the rainband approaching the mountains. Source: Weatherzone.

How will the snow season look after the coming bursts of rain?

Resorts with significant snowmaking infrastucture should hold up reasonably well on the main runs, given the recent spell of decent snowmaking weather at most resorts.

For example the mercury has fallen below zero every single night bar one to date this August at Perisher (NSW). On almost all of those nights, the snow guns have been firing.

But only three of those nights at Perisher have been colder than -5°C. Conditions have been much more marginal for snowmaking at many locations across the mountains.

Australia’s two lowest resorts – Mt Baw Baw (Vic) and Selwyn Snow Resort (NSW) – are already reduced to thin strips of manmade snow with virtually no natural snow cover. Even the busy Mt Buller resort (Vic) now has almost no skiable terrain outside its snowmaking areas.

Australia’s largest ski resort, Perisher (NSW), still has 37 of its 45 lifts operating, although that number could drop after this week’s rain. Thredbo has been running all 15 of its lifts at various stages this week, although some are on wind hold this Wednesday.

Charlotte Pass (NSW) still has all five of its lifts spinning, although the snow near the bottom of its new Guthries Chairlift is hanging on by a thread,

Image: At least there are no crowds at Charlotte Pass. Source: charlottepass.com.au.

Falls Creek (Vic) has 12 of its 15 lifts open while Hotham (Vic) has been running 10 of its 14 lifts this week but some are on wind hold this Wednesday.

As ever, you can check the latest forecasts, live cam images and more on the Weatherzone snow page.