Australia's 2025–26 tropical cyclone season featured seven severe tropical cyclones — well above the historical average of four to five — continuing a trend of increasing cyclone intensity in the Australian region.

The 2025–26 Australian tropical cyclone season officially ran from 1 November 2025 to 30 April 2026. During this six-month period, Australia saw 11 tropical cyclones, with nine forming within the Australian region and two forming outside of Australia’s area of responsibility. Five of these systems made landfall, bringing severe weather to parts of the country.

While a season total of eleven cyclones is slightly above the long-term average of 9.5 systems, the season was notable for an unusually high proportion of severe cyclones forming in the region. Of the eleven cyclones, seven systems reached severe intensity (Category 3 or higher), compared to a historical average of approximately 4-5 severe cyclones per season. This is the third consecutive season with six or more severe tropical cyclones in the Australian region, following eight in 2024-25 and six in 2023-24.

The seven severe systems of the 2025–26 season were:

Narelle (Cat 5)

Maila (Cat 5)

Fina (Cat 4)

Bakung (Cat 4)

Hayley (Cat 4)

Jenna (Cat 4)

Mitchell (Cat 3)

Of these seven severe tropical cyclones, four made landfall on the Australian mainland, with Narelle notably crossing the coast multiple times across three different states/territories.

Cyclone activity during the season was not evenly distributed, with peak periods occurring during monsoon onsets and when tropical pulses, such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), were active. The most active period occurred between February and March 2026, when the monsoon trough, MJO and warm ocean temperatures coincided.

The 2025–26 season broadly followed the typical spatial pattern; however, the western region saw more cyclones than normal, with nine forming or moving into the area.

Image: Tropical cyclone count for each Australian region in the 2025-26 season, along with the long-tern average for each region. Source: Weatherzone.

Climate drivers influencing tropical cyclones this season

The active and intense 2025-26 tropical cyclone season occurred under the influence of above-average sea surface temperatures surrounding northern Australia, which were associated with La Niña, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the background influence of climate change. This abnormally warm water was a dominant driver of tropical cyclone intensity, supporting:

Rapid intensification events

Higher peak cyclone intensity

Longer-lived severe systems

The northern Australian monsoon arrived earlier than usual on December 23, 2025, marking the first active phase of the wet season. This is typical of La Niña years, which often see an earlier monsoon onset.

Once established, the monsoon became highly active and moisture-rich, contributing significantly to both rainfall and tropical cyclone development.

Tropical cyclones and monsoonal lows also contributed significantly to seasonal rainfall totals, particularly inland, with above to very much above average rainfall observed across northern Australia.

Cyclone trend in Australia: fewer cyclones but with greater intensity

The number of tropical cyclones in the Australian region has decreased in recent decades, with an average reduction of around one system every 11 years since 1980, likely linked to broader climate change influences. This long-term decline also reflects strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, with La Niña years typically producing more cyclones, while El Niño years are often associated with fewer systems.

Image: Seasonal tropical cyclone numbers and long-term trend, combined with ENSO phases showing El Niño years in red and La Niña years in blue. Source: Weatherzone.

While total cyclone numbers are decreasing, the proportion of severe tropical cyclones is increasing. Warmer ocean temperatures are a key driver of this trend, supporting more frequent rapid intensification and higher peak intensities.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle- the most impactful system of the season

Tropical Cyclone Narelle accounted for a disproportionate share of operational activity due to its duration and multi-region impact. It is highly unusual for a system to cross three Australian jurisdictions (Queensland, the Northern Territory, and Western Australia), making Narelle a rare “triple-impact” cyclone.

This type of track is extremely uncommon in modern records. Narelle became the first tropical cyclone since 2005 to make landfall in three Australian states while maintaining tropical cyclone intensity, with the only other comparable cases since 1980 being Cyclone Ingrid (2005) and Cyclone Steve (2000).