Australia’s six-month tropical cyclone season is now officially underway and while this season is predicted to be quieter than usual for the Australia region, severe tropical cyclones and coastal crossings are still possible.
When is Australia’s tropical cyclone season?
The Australian tropical cyclone season runs from the start of November until the end of April.
This six-month period is the time of year when tropical cyclone development is most likely to occur in the Australian region, due to warm sea surface temperatures and enhanced rain and thunderstorm activity providing the necessary ingredients for tropical cyclones to form and intensify.
How many tropical cyclones form near Australia each season?
Over the past 45 years, there has been an average of 9–10 tropical cyclones in the Australian region each season. Of these, roughly 3–4 typically make landfall in Australia each season.
However, the number of tropical cyclones has declined slightly in recent decades, with the average sitting closer to 8–9 per season during the last 25 years.
El Niño typically reduces tropical cyclone frequency even further, with El Niño seasons averaging around seven cyclones per season.
How many tropical cyclones will form this season?
According to computer modelling from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), this season is likely to see about 5–8 tropical cyclones in the Australian region. This range aligns with what would be expected during an El Niño season based on historical records.
While many of these tropical cyclones will probably stay over the ocean, some should impact Australia. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, “there has always been at least one tropical cyclone that crosses the Australian coast each season.”
It’s also important to point out that tropical cyclones do not need to make landfall to cause severe weather. Due to their large size, tropical cyclones that pass close to the coast can still cause flooding rain, damaging winds, severe thunderstorms and storm surges on land.
What names will be used for tropical cyclones this season?
Tropical cyclones that form in Australia’s area of responsibility are assigned names by the Bureau of Meteorology. Any systems that form outside the Australian region will be named by another regional authority, and this system will then keep this original name if it moves into the Australian region.
The next 10 names that will be assigned to tropical cyclones which form in the Australian region will be:
Owen
Peta
Riordan
Sandra
Tim
Victoria
Zane
Alessia
Bruce
Catherine
Image: Names that will be assigned to the next 10 tropical cyclones that form in Australia’s area of responsibility. Source: Weatherzone.
How to stay safe during the tropical cyclone season
Anyone in northern Australia can prepare now for the tropical cyclone season.
The James Cook University website has useful information about what to do before the cyclone season, when a cyclone watch or warning is issued and when a tropical cyclone strikes.
The Queensland Government also provides important information around how to prepare an effective emergency plan and pack an emergency kit.
Western Australia’s DFES website has tropical cyclone safety information for locals and travellers.