Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean just exceeded 30°C for the first time on record as El Niño continues to gain strength and influence weather patterns on a global scale.

El Niño became established in the Pacific Ocean in the middle of 2026 and has been rapidly gaining strength in the last few months.

Data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), published by the University of Maine, reveals that sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region reached 30.06°C on October 5.

According to the NOAA OISST data published by Climate Reanlayzer, this is the first time the sea surface temperature inside the Niño3.4 region has exceeded 30°C. The previous record was 29.82°C on November 17, 2015.

The long-term average Niño3.4 temperature in early October is about 26.7°C, meaning the 30.06°C observed on October 5 was about 3.4°C above the long-term average.

How strong will this El Niño become?

Despite already breaking records, forecast models suggest that this El Niño is still a couple of months away from its peak strength.

Modelling from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicts a peak sometime between November and January, most likely in December. Current ECMWF guidance suggests a possible peak Niño3.4 anomaly between +3.9°C and +4.3°C. If realised, this would be around 1.5°C above the previous record from 2015, which is a colossal margin for a long-term climate record.

Image: Niño3.4 anomaly forecast from the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Source: ECMWF.

How will this El Niño affect the weather?

The strengthening El Niño is expected to amplify weather extremes on a global scale in the coming months. The United Nations (UN) warns that this event could bring severe drought and water shortages in some regions, while increasing the risk of heavy rain and flooding in others.

Key global impacts associated with the strengthening El Niño could include:

Suppressed rainfall leading to worsening drought in parts of the western Pacific, including Papua New Guinea and Indonesia.

Increased risk of heavy rainfall and flooding across the Greater Horn of Africa.

Greater temperature extremes, with higher temperatures likely to accelerate soil moisture loss and enhance drought in some areas.

For Australia, the strengthening El Niño is likely to have mixed impacts in the coming months.

Parts of southeastern and northern Australia are expected to be drier than average during spring and early summer. By contrast, above average rain may affect parts of western, central and eastern Australia in the coming months.

Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia during the remainder of 2026. This heat could help increase seasonal bushfire activity during spring and summer, particularly in areas that receive below average rainfall.

Tropical cyclone activity can also be suppressed in the Australian region during El Niño. However, there will still be a risk of tropical cyclones impacting the country’s tropical coastline, even if the overall number of cyclones are lower than normal.