A burst of wet and windy weather will sweep across Victoria on Wednesday, with damaging wind gusts possible in central parts of the state, including Melbourne.

Northerly winds were already affecting Vic’s weather on Tuesday, carrying relatively warm late-winter air and showers across the state.

While Melbourne’s average maximum temperature in August is about 15°C, the city’s thermometer reached 20°C shortly before 2 pm on Tuesday. This was Melbourne’s first 20°C day in about nine weeks.

These northerly winds will strengthen on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a low pressure trough passes over the state from west to east. The passage of the trough will also cause showers to become more widespread across the state.

How strong will the wind get?

Northerly winds will strengthen over Vic during Tuesday night and on Wednesday morning. The strongest winds will occur over the state’s central ranges from early Wednesday, where gusts of around 90 km/h are possible. These damaging winds may also spread south into parts of Melbourne and the Mornington and Bellarine Peninsulas after sunrise.

Wind will tend more northwesterly and ease during the afternoon once the trough has passed through.

How much rain will Vic see from this system?

Due to the northerly winds, most of the rain from this system will fall on and north of the ranges in Vic, with southern parts of the state being more shielded from the wet weather.

Some areas in central and northwest Vic could see around 15–30 mm of rain falling during Tuesday and Wednesday combined. Parts of the state’s southwest could also see around 5–15 mm, while Melbourne should see less than 10 mm.

Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the 36 hours ending at 10 pm AEST on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Source: Weatherzone.

A severe weather warning has been issued for damaging winds in parts of central Vic on Wednesday. Check the latest warning for the most up-to-date information on this system.