Tropical Cyclone Wati has developed in the South Pacific and is the first of the 2026-27 southern hemisphere cyclone season. 

Tropical Cyclone Wati was declared a Category 1 tropical cyclone by the Nadi Weather Office of Fiji in the early hours of Saturday 17th October just offshore of the Cook Islands. Wati is forecast to strengthen into a Category 2 cyclone as it moves further south-southeast into the Southern Pacific Ocean, crossing over the Lower Cook Islands on Monday 19th. 

The Australian and South Pacific cyclone season doesn’t officially start until November 1st, 2026, which is usually when sea surface temperatures are warm enough to support tropical cyclone formation and growth. However, due to the continually developing El Niño, surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean are far warmer than average, making it possible for cyclones to develop ahead of the start of the season. 

Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean on October 18th, 2026. Source: NOAA.

It isn’t uncommon for out-of-season cyclones to develop. The last pre-season cyclone in the South Pacific was Severe Tropical Cyclone Lola in October 2023; the earliest recorded Category 5 cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere. Lola developed in the waters near the Solomon Islands, which were exceptionally warm (around 30 degrees) due to 2023-24 El Niño. The system moved south towards Vanuatu, impacting the country on the 25th October as a Category 5. 

Tropical Cyclone Wati is not forecast to have this high level of impact on any island state of the Pacific. Wati’s forecast trajectory will push it into cooler waters, weakening the system and assisting it in an extratropical transition as it looks to combine with a frontal system in the southern Pacific. Other than it’s crossing over the Cook Islands, Wati is not forecast to impact any other land. Visit the Fiji Meteorological Service site for more information.