Hobart warmer than Brisbane for at least a week

A highly unusual weather anomaly is underway in eastern Australia, with maximum temperatures in Hobart likely to exceed those in Brisbane for a week or longer.

The Tasmanian capital is located approximately 1800 kilometres southwest of the subtropical Queensland capital, and is situated almost 16 degrees of latitude further south (approx. 43° south vs 27° south).

So as you'd expect, Hobart's average temperatures are much cooler both by day and night in all months. Indeed, Brisbane's average October maximum of 27.2°C is more than 10 degrees warmer than Hobart's October average of 17.1°C.

But this week, the daily maximums are upside down.

While Hobart's maximum temperature will often exceeds Brisbane's for a day or two during a brief surge of heat across southern Australia in the warmer months, it's rare for the exception to be so long-lasting.

Recent and forecast maximums for Hobart vs Brisbane

Forecast temperature anomalies across Australia on Monday, October 19, 2026
Image: Forecast Australian maximums for this coming Thursday, October 22, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Note the yellow and green zone in SE Qld compared to the orange zone in SE Tas. Source: Weatherzone.

From last Friday through Saturday and Sunday:

Hobart peaked at 23.3°C, 25.7°C and 24.6°C.

The mercury in Brisbane reached 22.8°C, 22.8°C and 23.5°C.

So Hobart has been warmer over the last three days, and the trend is set to continue. From this Monday, October 19, through to Friday, October 23, the forecast maximums are:

Hobart: 25°C, 27°C, 25°C, 28°C, 28°C

Brisbane: 20°C, 24°C, 24°C, 23°C, 24°C

Overall, Hobart's daily maximum will likely end up being warmer than Brisbane's on all eight days from last Friday through to this coming Friday. 

The pattern then breaks down on Saturday as a rain band ahead of an approaching cold front begins to cool things down in Hobart, just as Brisbane starts to warm up.

What is causing the warmth in Hobart and relatively cool weather in Brisbane?

Image: Mean sea level pressure and 850 hPa temperatures for Australia at 5 pm (AEDT) on Monday, October 19, 2026. The high centred over waters near NZ is expected to move very little over the week. Source: Weatherzone.

As Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino explains, a large high pressure system will linger above the Tasman Sea and remain near-stationary for most of the week.

"Computer models predict that the centre of this system will only move by about 500 km between Monday and Saturday," Domensino says.

Air circulates anticlockwise around high pressure systems in the Southern Hemisphere, which is why the high is driving warm northerly winds towards Adelaide, Melbourne and Hobart, while Sydney and Brisbane are receiving an onshore flow with cloud, showers and slightly milder temperatures.