A large pool of cold air with origins in the polar region is surging across the Great Australian Bight and is set to chill Tasmania and the southeastern corner of mainland Australia in coming days.

The cold air is clearly visible on Wednesday morning’s satellite image, with a tell-tale speckled cloud pattern over the Bight.

As Weatherzone meteorologist Corine Brown explains, "the speckled clouds are cumulus cloud cells that form when frigid air moves over relatively warm water. This creates instability, with each cell potentially producing rain, hail, snow, or thunderstorms. Between them lie clear patches of sky."

Cold winds to fuel frigid "feels like" temperatures

Numerous locations across the southeastern mainland and Tasmania are facing their chilliest day of 2026 to date on Thursday. And even if the mercury doesn’t officially register the lowest maximum of the year, it will still likely feel like the coldest day in many places.

For example, Melbourne’s coldest day of 2026 so far was July 7, when the maximum reached just 11.0°C. But that was on a relatively still day after a heavy morning fog took many hours to lift.

While Melbourne’s Thursday maximum is expected to reach 12°C, the apparent or "feels like" temperature should be no warmer than 6°C for most of the day, due to those bone-chilling southwesterly winds whipping across Victoria.

Hobart will feel even colder. While Thursday’s forecast maximum is 9°C, the "feels like" temperature is expected to remain below zero all day, with snow falling to as low as 300 metres above sea level in southern Tasmania. That means Hobart’s highest suburbs could see snow flurries.

Image: 3-day forecast for Hobart, Tas. The brown line shows the apparent or "feels like" temperature which is set to remain below freezing throughout daylight hours on Thursday. Source: Weatherzone.

How much rain and snow can we expect?

This will be a much wetter, snowier system for Tasmania than for the mainland.

As the chart below indicates, western and parts of central Tasmania can expect heavy totals of rain or snow in coming days, while accumulated totals from this event will be lighter elsewhere.

Image: Accumulated precipitation to 10 am on Saturday, July 25, 2026 across SE Australia, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone.

The Victorian coastline can expect to see showers for several days, however the overall total from this event will still be below 20 mm at most locations.

For the mainland alpine region, a few centimetres of snow should accumulate on Thursday and Friday, and while the top-up will be welcome, this will not be the big blizzard the ski resorts are hoping for, with snow levels still relatively moderate for this time of year.

But there are signs of another cold front early next week which could push further north, delivering more meaningful snowfalls. Please check the Weatherzone snow page for the latest forecasts, live snow cams and more.