Heavy rain will soak parts of central Australia from this weekend into next week, with potential for several hundred millimetres of rain and flooding in parts of the Northern Territory and South Australia.

Copious tropical moisture interacting with a slow-moving low pressure system and associated low pressure troughs will cause rain and thunderstorms to spread over central Australia during the coming week.

This inland soaking will be linked to ongoing rain and thunderstorm activity across northern Australia, which has also caused flooding in parts of Queensland and Western Australia.

Inland NT rain ramping up this weekend

A low pressure system moving over the southern NT should cause rain to intensify over the territory’s inland from this Saturday, February 21. There is some uncertainty regarding where the heaviest falls will occur, but at this stage the Barkly district and Simpson Desert look to be likely areas for heavy falls. However, some models push this weekend’s heaviest rain further north into the Carpentaria and Gregory districts.

Heavy rain should then continue over parts of the NT’s inland into early next week, possibly extending south towards Alice Springs and Uluru.

While computer model disagreement is making it hard to pinpoint where and how much rain will fall, there is potential for 100 to 200 mm of rain over a broad area of the NT’s inland from this weekend into next week, with isolated areas possibly exceeding 300 mm over several days. This much rain would cause widespread flooding and may cut off roads and railway lines.

Rain spreading to SA

Tropical moisture should drift south from the weekend and fuel rain and thunderstorms over parts of SA. Uncertainty around the rain in SA is currently high due to computer models struggling to agree on the position and strength of a low pressure trough next week.

Despite this model disagreement, there is potential for heavy rain over parts of SA beginning on Sunday, February 23 and continuing into next week. The area currently most likely to see this heavy rain will be the state’s northern pastoral region, where the vast flat landscape will be prone to widespread flooding.

Rainfall totals of 100 to 300 mm are possible over the north of SA between this Sunday and late next week. Some computer models suggest that heavy rain could fall directly over or to the south of Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre around Tuesday and Wednesday next week. This may cause rare inflows from the lake’s southern tributaries, with water usually entering the endorheic lake (a closed basin with no outflow) from the northeast.

Model disagreement leading to high uncertainty

While there are clear signs that heavy rain will fall over parts of the NT and SA during the coming week, computer models are not agreeing on the timing, location and intensity of rainfall.

The three maps below show how much rain is being predicted over the next seven days from three separate computer models. These maps highlight the range of rainfall predictions for central Australia in the coming week.

Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the seven days ending at 11:00pm AEDT on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone.

Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the seven days ending at 5:00am AEDT on Thursday, February 26, 2026, according to the GFS model. Source: Weatherzone.

Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the seven days ending at 11pm AEDT on Wednesday, February 25, 2026, according to the ACCESS-G model. Source: Weatherzone.

This uncertainty may cause local rain forecasts to jump around from day-to-day as new and more reliable model data becomes available.

Anyone in central Australia should keep a close eye on the latest forecasts and warnings over the coming week for the most up to date information. Also check road conditions and road closures before travelling.