A low pressure system currently causing heavy rain over the Northern Territory could develop into a tropical cyclone near the Pilbara coast later this week.

The satellite images below show a tropical low spinning over the NT on Monday. This system has already caused heavy rain over the last few days, including the following totals during the 24 hours ending at 9am ACST on Monday:

154.2 mm at Bradshaw – wettest February day in 23 years of records

126.6 mm at Delamere – wettest day in 15 years

122.6 mm at Maningrida Airport – wettest day in 15 years

Tropical cyclone threat increasing later this week

The low is unlikely to become a tropical cyclone while it remains over land. However, forecast models indicate the system should move towards the west in the coming days and move off Western Australia’s Kimberley coast later this week, most likely around Friday.

Once it moves offshore, the low pressure system has a better chance of becoming a tropical cyclone as it draws energy from the warm water to the north of WA.

The Bureau of Meteorology gives this system a moderate risk of becoming a tropical cyclone on the weekend as it tracks in a westerly direction to the north of the Pilbara district.

Modelling from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts gives stronger odds of cyclone development, with a 60 to 70% chance that a tropical cyclone will be located within a 300 km radius of the Pilbara coast at some point between Saturday and Monday.

Image: Probability that a tropical cyclone will pass within a 300 km radius within a 48-hour window of 8am AWST on February 8, 2026. Source: ECMWF.

Heavy rain and flooding to hit several states

Regardless of whether this system becomes a tropical cyclone later this week, a broad area of the NT and northern WA will be impacted by heavy rain and flooding between now and Friday while the system is still a tropical low. Moisture associated with the low will also fuel daily rain and thunderstorm activity over large areas of northern and eastern Australia this week.

Flood watches have been issued for parts of the NT, Queensland and WA’s Kimberley district due to the rain that’s expected to fall during the remainder of this week. Severe thunderstorm warnings may also be issued throughout the week as storms start to become more widespread.

Check the latest warnings in your area for the most up to date information over the coming week. Anyone living in the Pilbara should have a tropical cyclone plan ready, and monitor the latest tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings for more information.