Heavy rain and damaging winds are likely to affect parts of eastern Qld this weekend as a potential tropical cyclone hits the state’s northeast coast.
Tropical cyclone risk increasing
A tropical low currently deepening over the Coral Sea is expected to intensify further as it approaches the Qld coast this weekend.
At 10am AEST on Friday, the low was located roughly 405 km to the northeast of Cairns. While the low was barely moving on Friday morning, it is expected to start tracking towards the south southwest on Friday afternoon and night, bringing it closer to Qld’s North Tropical Coast.
At this stage, the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts the low to become a category 1 tropical cyclone on Saturday, before reaching the coast somewhere between Cairns and Ayr late Saturday or early Sunday. If it does become a tropical cyclone, it will be named Koji.
Heavy rain and damaging winds on the way
This system will cause heavy rain and gale force winds to develop over parts of northeast Qld on Saturday, with both rain and wind increasing as the system gets closer to the coast. The heaviest rain and strongest winds will be located near and south of the system’s centre.
The map below shows how much rain is expected to fall between Friday and Sunday, although rainfall amounts will depend on the intensity and location of the low or tropical cyclone as it approaches the coast.
Falls of 50 to 150 mm are likely over a broad area extending from about Cooktown to Bundaberg between Friday and Sunday, although much of this rain will fall within 24 hours for most places.
Isolated daily totals could reach 200 to 400 mm between about Cooktown and Mackay from Friday night through Saturday, with six-hourly rain rates possibly reaching 100 to 250 mm in this area.
Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the 72 hours ending at 10pm AEST on Sunday, January 11, 2026. Source: Weatherzone.
This rain will be falling into rivers that are already elevated from recent rain, which will exacerbate the risk of further flooding in the coming days.
The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a Flood Watch for rivers between Cooktown and Rockhampton, and for the Cape York Peninsula. Minor to major riverine flooding is possible in these areas from Friday into the weekend.
In addition to the rain and flooding, isolated areas of damaging winds could develop along the coast between Tully and Cooktown from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.
Looking further ahead, blustery winds and heavy rain could extend further south over the Capricornia, Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast districts from Sunday into early next week.
How to stay safe during this event
Emergency services advise people to never drive, walk or swim through floodwater, and stay away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways. Plan ahead to avoid flooded roads and do not drive if conditions are dangerous.
Anyone living in eastern Qld should monitor the latest forecasts and warnings in their area over the coming days, which can be found on the Weatherzone and Bureau of Meteorology websites and apps.