The Bureau of Meteorology is monitoring a tropical disturbance near the Solomon Islands, with a low chance it could develop into a rare July tropical cyclone later this week.

A broad area of convective activity associated with a low pressure trough to the east of the Solomon Islands may consolidate into a Tropical Low on Thursday or Friday.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, “the tropical system has a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from Friday to Sunday.”

While this system is unlikely to affect Australia, it is expected to bring heavy rain and strong winds to parts of the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea later this week, regardless of whether it reaches tropical cyclone strength.

Unusual time for tropical cyclone activity

The tropical cyclone season for the Australian region – which includes part of the Solomon Islands – runs from November to April. This is when the oceans are warmest and the atmosphere is most supportive of cyclone development in the Southern Hemisphere tropics. The vast majority of past tropical cyclones in the Australian region have developed during this six-month period.

However, tropical cyclones can develop outside the traditional cyclone season. On rare occasions, they can even form during the Southern Hemisphere’s winter.

Since 1970, there have only been four tropical cyclones in or near the Australian region during July, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s tropical cyclone database.

The most recent was an unnamed system that briefly became a tropical cyclone near the Cocos (Keeling) Islands in late July 2022. While this system was not named in real-time, a post-event analysis determined that it had intensified enough to be classified as a category 1 tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Raquel was the next most recent July cyclone, forming near the Solomon Islands on July 1, 2015, and dissipating the next day. Raquel was the first tropical cyclone in records dating back to 1970 to form in Australia's Eastern Region during July.

Other July tropical cyclones included one more unnamed system in 2007 and Tropical Cyclone Lindsay in 1996, both located over the Indian Ocean to the west of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

If a tropical cyclone does develop or move into the Australian region near the Solomon Islands later this week, it would become only the second time a tropical cyclone has formed in the Eastern Region during July.