Large parts of Queensland are in for a good soaking as the remnants of ex-Tropical Cyclone Maila cross the coastline.

Tropical Cyclone Maila formed on April 4 near the Solomon Islands and briefly became a severe category 5 cyclone. Tragically, at least 11 people were killed on the island of Bougainville, which is geographically located along the Solomons chain but politically part of Papua New Guinea.

Maila rapidly downgraded to a tropical low over the weekend as it tracked in a southwesterly direction from the Solomon Sea to the Coral Sea. The ex-cyclone is now set to cross the Cape York coastline on Tuesday evening.

How much rain can Queensland expect?

The loop below shows cloud and moisture pushing towards the Queensland coastline on Tuesday morning.

While there’s uncertainty over rainfall totals, it appears likely that the stretch of coastline north of Mackay to Cape York is in for a few days of heavy rain that could exceed 100mm in some areas.

This is not unusual for North Queensland in April, although it’s worth noting that prolonged coastal downpours do become less likely by mid-autumn.

For example, Townsville receives 312.9mm of rainfall on average in February, but that drops to just 68.1mm in April. But the city could conceivably receive its monthly average within a couple of days this week ahead of the North Queensland Cowboys hosting the Manly Sea Eagles in the big Thursday night NRL match, on what could be a soggy field at Townsville’s Queensland Country Bank Stadium.

How far inland will the moisture spread?

Models suggest that this will be another event that delivers moisture to inland Queensland, in a year when that part of the country has seen plenty of rain.

Image: Accumulated rainfall predicted for Queensland by 10pm on Friday, April 17, 2006, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone.

As the map above shows, outback towns like Longreach, Mount Isa and Winton (which is close to the geographical heart of Qld) are all likely to see a decent drop this week.

One part of the state which will be disappointed to miss significant rainfall this week is southeast Queensland. As the map below shows, this area has experienced significant rainfall deficiencies to date in 2026.

Image: Australian rainfall deciles from January to March, 2026. Source: BoM.

Brisbane is likely to remain dry and mostly sunny all the way through to the end of the weekend.