Wilds winds are gathering strength, with widespread storms developing across Victoria and southern New South Wales on a dynamic afternoon of weather across southeastern Australia.
Severe weather warnings for damaging winds have been issued for parts of Victoria, northern Tasmania and southern NSW, with peak gusts of 100 km/h or stronger expected by Thursday evening in each state, likely persisting into Friday morning.
Of the southeastern capitals, Adelaide was the only city to see storms by Thursday lunchtime, with 11.6mm in the city gauge between 9am and 1:30pm (ACST), after 7.8mm overnight.
However, storm activity commenced in Melbourne just after 2pm and it appears likely to continue into Thursday evening. Heavy downpours have already occurred in some suburbs, with Melbourne Airport receiving 13mm in just 15 minutes not long before 3pm.
What’s causing this wild weather?
As detailed in our story on Wednesday, a strong low pressure system in the Southern Ocean is the engine of today’s potentially dangerous conditions.
As polar air surges northwards (indicated on the loop above by the speckled airmass), warm air from the interior of the continent is being dragged southwards in strong northwesterly winds, as air flows naturally from areas of high pressure to low pressure.
A classic Australian weather feature called a northwest cloudband can also been seen in the satellite loop above, like a giant sash across the country. Sometimes, northwest cloudbands bring widespread soaking rain. At other times (like today), they produce more scattered rainfall and storms.
READ MORE: What is a northwest cloudband?
What to expect next from this weather system
As mentioned, winds will strengthen in exposed areas tonight, particularly in elevated districts, with showers and storms persisting into Friday morning in many of the areas mentioned.
Parts of the NSW coast can then expect near-record April heat on Friday, as cooler air arrives in Victoria and Tasmania.
But the coldest air down south isn’t due until Friday night or Saturday, when snowfalls will occur in the Victorian high country, the Snowy Mountains of NSW, and higher parts of Tasmania.
Image: Snow forecast for Tasmania and the SE mainland at 1am on Saturday, April 11, 2026. Source: BoM.
This looks like it will be a particularly significant autumn snowfall event for Tasmania, with temperatures cold enough for snow to fall down to 700m above sea level or slightly lower. Accumulations of at least 20 centimetres are likely at higher elevations, given the abundant available moisture.