Tropical Cyclone Narelle made landfall early this morning as a severe category 3 system over the Northern Territory’s eastern Top End, after crossing the Gulf of Carpentaria during Saturday. Narelle is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone strength during Sunday as it tracks westwards across the Top End.

As of 7:30am ACST Sunday, Narelle has weakened to a category 2 system with winds near its centre reaching 95km/h, gusting to 130km/h, and located approximately 340km east-northeast of Katherine. The system is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone strength during the morning, before crossing over the northern NT during Sunday, passing near Katherine on Sunday evening, then the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Monday.

Gif: Tropical Cyclone Narelle made landfall over the eastern Top End coast this morning. Source: Weatherzone

Impacts for the eastern Top End

Narelle passed just north of Groote Eylandt just after 2am local time, though the main weather station at the airport on the western side of the island was relatively protected from the worst winds. The station recorded a maximum wind gust of 83km/h, as well as 32mm of rainfall since 9am yesterday morning. Meanwhile, Gove Airport, at Nhulunbuy on the far northeast corner of the Top End was exposed to wind gusts as high as 98km/h, as well as 131mm of rainfall since 9am yesterday. Elsewhere, Ngayawili (Elcho Island) further to the west has seen 54mm of rainfall, and a peak wind gust of 91km/h.

Major flooding once again for the Top End

Despite Narelle weakening through today, it is still expected to dump significant amounts of rain across communities that have experienced more than their fair share of flooding this wet season. A severe weather warning currently encompasses most of the Daly River Catchment, including Katherine, as well as multiple other river catchments across the northern NT. Localised 24-hour totals of as much as 300mm possible near the track of Narelle as it weakens back to a tropical low. This event comes just a few weeks after the biggest flood event in decades impacted the region.

More broadly, widespread rainfall totals of 180-250mm are likely across large swathes of the central and northern Top End. As of 8:00am, significant falls have already been recorded at Bulman (93mm), Milingimbi Ap (87mm) Goyder River (77mm) and Mount Bundley North (61mm). A convective band of showers and storms that crossed Darwin has delivered 16mm to the airport, with the city expected to see 60-120mm before Monday afternoon.

What’s next for Narelle?

Image: Narelle is rated a 55% chance to redevelop into a tropical cyclone by Tuesday evening. Source: BoM 

As an ex-tropical cyclone, Narelle is expected to move across the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and over Western Australia’s northern Kimberley region on Monday. There is currently a moderate chance of Narelle restrengthening briefly into a tropical cyclone ahead of making another landfall over the northeast Kimberley coast. By Tuesday, the system is expected to be moving over open waters of the Indian Ocean. At this stage there is a high chance that Narelle will reintensify into a tropical cyclone by Tuesday night.

Later in the week, Narelle’s track will likely take it parallel to the Pilbara coast, and potentially towards northwest Gascoyne later in the week. While direct impacts are unlikely at this stage, people along the Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts should monitor the system for periods of increased showers and winds as it progresses towards the west-southwest.