Multiple tropical cyclones could form in the Australian region this week, increasing the threat of severe weather in Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland.

An active monsoon trough will cause more widespread cloud, rain and thunderstorms over northern Australia throughout the week. This active monsoon period will also cause several low pressure systems to develop near northern Australia.

Multiple lows forming near Australia

Computer models suggest that three or four low pressure systems could form near northern Australia in the coming days. While there is uncertainty regarding the position and strength of these systems, the most likely areas for the systems to form will be to the north of WA, in the Gulf of Carpentaria and over the Coral Sea.

Forecast guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests that there is greater than an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation to the north of WA this week. Further east, this model rates the likelihood of tropical cyclone activity in the Gulf of Carpentaria to be above 50%, while there is around a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the Coral Sea this week.

The Bureau of Meteorology also indicates an increased risk of tropical cyclone formation in these regions, although gives lower probabilities of cyclone formation, ranging from 15 to 35%.

Rain and severe weather risk increasing

Regardless of whether or not tropical cyclones form near Australia this week, the presence of the monsoon trough and multiple tropical low pressure systems will generate widespread rain across northern Australia.

Some computer models also suggest that at least one of this week’s eastern low pressure systems will drag heavy rain over central and southeast Qld towards the end of the week.

The map below shows how much rain one computer model is predicting over Australia this week, highlighting the potential for heavy rain in northern Australia and eastern Qld.

Image: Forecast accumulated rain this week, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone.

If tropical cyclones do develop this week, parts of northern and eastern Australia could experience intense rain, flash flooding, damaging to destructive winds, large waves and coastal inundation.

Active tropical cyclone season for Australia

This week’s increased tropical cyclone potential continues an active 2025-26 tropical cyclone season to date.

Since the start of November 2025, nine tropical cyclones have formed inside, or moved into the Australian region. This is already roughly equal to the long-term average number of cyclones for a typical season, which runs until the end of April. This week has the potential to add several more tropical cyclones to the season’s tally.

The next four tropical cyclones to form inside Australia's area of responsibility will be named:

Narelle

Oran

Peta

Riordan