Just as Australia’s tropics see a monsoon season during the Southern Hemisphere’s summer, India and southeast Asia see their monsoon season in the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. 

Yet India has seen below-average monsoonal rain over the country so far this season. Central and western India have seen a significant rainfall deficit in 2026, mostly because the Indian monsoon has stopped in the country’s east. The dry and hot conditions over central India are so intense that heatwave conditions have been declared for the districts of Vidarbha, Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra by the Indian Meteorological Department. 

So, what is causing this pause in the reach of the Indian Monsoon? 

A low pressure system which developed over the Mediterranean Sea a fortnight ago slowly traversed the Levant, inland Middle East and Central Asia. The system brought rain, storms and unseasonal snow as it moved away from its home basin of the Mediterranean. This type of system is called a Western Disturbance, and as they move further over land, they draw in upper-level moisture. In this case, the Indian Monsoon loaned itself as a basin for upper-level moisture that this Western Disturbance drew upon. These Disturbances are often stopped by the Himalayas and tend to precipitate themselves dry over India’s north. 

Image: Map of forecast temperature anomalies, highlighting cold anomalies associated with the movement of a Western Disturbance from June 2nd to June 7th 2026 (DTN APAC using ECMWF). In reality the system moved slower and continues to linger over the Himalaya to June 14th. 

Consequently, a dry airmass developed in between the moisture of the Western Disturbance in the northwest and the Indian Monsoon in the southeast, leading to the heatwave conditions over the country’s interior. 

Image: Satellite image of water vapour and forecast wind streamlines over India (Himawari Satellite) 

Another factor to possibly contributing to the extent of the Indian Monsoon in 2026 is El Nino. El Nino changes the atmospheric circulation over the entire globe, so it doesn’t just effect Australia (see what El Nino means for Australia here). The monsoon tends to strengthen in La Nina events and weaken in El Ninos, though not always, given that other atmospheric factors can be bigger contributors to the monsoon. As seen in the plot below, between 1950 and 2012 there were 14 recorded El Nino events, with 10 resulting in below average monsoonal rainfall and 5 of which were considered droughts. 

Image: Plot showing an El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (ONI) and the anomalous rainfall from the Indian monsoon per year from 1950 to 2012 (NOAA, adapted from Kumar et al. 2006) 

It is the combination of the dry airmass over central India, which acts as a wall to the monsoon’s northern reach and the Western Disturbance to the north which are leading to the current dry and warm conditions over India’s western interior. But El Nino may have had an impact on the start of the monsoon and will continue to impact the Indian Monsoon for the rest of the season, contributing to below average rainfall and heatwave conditions over the country.