Christmas Day is always a mixed bag of weather across Australia, and this year will be no different, with temperatures likely to range from 0°C in one state to the mid-40s in another, while widespread rain and thunderstorms soak at least two states.

The weather pattern over Australia on Christmas ay this year will feature a high pressure system to the south of the country and a series of low pressure troughs over northern and eastern Australia.

The high to Australia’s south will cause a big range of temperatures across Australia on Christmas Day, while the troughs will bring rain and storms.

Cool in the southeast

Cool southwesterly winds on the eastern flank of the high will keep temperatures relatively low in Tasmania and other parts of southeastern Australia on Christmas Day.

Minimum temperatures in Tasmania could drop to around 0°C in the state’s Central Highlands on Christmas morning, most likely around the Liawenee area. Even Hobart could see the temperature dip below 10°C on Christmas morning.

Hot in the west

Meanwhile, a few thousand kilometres away, much warmer winds flowing around the northeastern quadrant of the high pressure system will cause temperatures to soar in WA this Christmas.

Maximum temperatures are likely to reach the mid-40s in WA’s Pilbara district on December 25. This hot air will also spread down the state’s west coast, with the temperature expected to reach around 40°C in Perth. Prior to this year, Perth has only reached 40°C five time on Christmas Day, the most recent of these also being the city’s hottest Christmas Day on record when the mercury hit 42.8°C in 2021.

Between the cool weather in Tas and the heat in WA, temperatures could range by around 45°C between the hottest and coldest places in Australia on Christmas Day this year.

Rain in the north

Another standout weather feature in Christmas Day this year will be tropical moisture feeding into a series of low pressure troughs across Qld, the NT and northern WA.

Widespread rain and storms are likely to occur across these areas, extending from the Kimberley in WA all the way down to central or southeast Qld.

The map below shows how much rain one computer model is predicting over Australia on Christmas Day.

Image: Forecast accumulated rain on Christmas Day according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone.

Christmas Day forecast for Australia’s capital cities

Sydney – Mostly cloudy with a possible shower and fresh southeasterly winds. Temperatures ranging from 19°C to 25°C.

Melbourne – Mostly cloudy with clearing showers and fresh southwesterly winds. Temperatures ranging from 13°C to 18°C.

Brisbane – Warm and mostly cloudy with showers and the chance of thunderstorms. Southwesterly winds tending northeasterly. Temperatures ranging from 23°C to 32°C.

Perth – Hot and mostly sunny with northeasterly winds tending southwesterly. Temperatures ranging from 25°C to 40°C.

Adelaide – Mostly sunny with southeasterly winds. Temperatures ranging from 13°C to 27°C.

Canberra – Mostly sunny with northwesterly winds tending fresh easterly. Temperatures ranging from 11°C to 29°C.

Hobart – Mostly cloudy with a late shower. Strong southwesterly winds. Temperatures ranging from 9°C to 17°C.

Darwin – Cloudy with showers and the chance of thunderstorms. Northwesterly winds. Temperatures ranging from 26°C to 32°C.

Image: Christmas Day forecast, valid at 1pm AEDT on December 19, 2025. Source: Weatherzone.