El Niño was officially declared by the BoM on Tuesday, June 16. So how might it affect snowfall prospects for the rest of the Australian snow season?

The 2026 Australian snow season got underway on June 6, but warm overnight temperatures have hindered snowmaking since then, while rain has washed away the early snowfall that arrived just before the traditional King’s Birthday long weekend season opening.

While it’s still early days, it hasn’t been an auspicious beginning. Currently, only a few very basic beginner slopes at some New South Wales and Victorian resorts are open, thanks to the remnants of early season snowmaking.

Typically, El Niño years have coincided with below-average Australian snow seasons, although that doesn’t necessarily mean the 2026 season will turn out to be a dud. Let’s dig a little deeper.

What is El Niño and how does it form?

El Niño is one of three phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – a global ocean and atmospheric phenomenon originating in the tropical Pacific. The other phases are La Niña and neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña).

You can read a full breakdown of what causes El Niño in our explainer story on the Weatherzone news feed.

But the brief version is:

El Niño occurs when warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures develop in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and trade winds weaken or reverse over the Pacific.

This in turn affects rainfall and temperature patterns on both sides of the Pacific, and potentially further afield.

El Niño tends to suppress cloud and rainfall across large parts of Australia, especially the eastern half, which in turn often leads to warmer daytime temperatures.

How El Niño typically disrupts the Australian snow season

El Niño typically reduces the amount of rainfall that occurs during winter and spring over eastern Australia.

Combine that with an increased likelihood of above-average daytime temperatures in southern and southeastern Australia from winter through spring, and the chance of heavy snowfalls decreases, while the resilience of the snowpack is often compromised due to warmer temperatures.

The graph below shows the relationship between Australian snow depths and so-called 'super' El Niño events – a term applied to very strong El Niños, which this year’s event is projected to be.

Image: Season peak snow depths at Spencers Creek NSW (as measured since 1954 by Snowy Hydro), with very strong or ‘super’ El Niño years highlighted in red. Source: Weatherzone.

Note that three out of four seasons (1982, 1997, 2015) which coincided with super El Niño events had significantly below-average snowfall.

It’s also worth noting that the lowest season on record at Spencers Creek (2006, peak depth just 85.1cm) occurred during the El Niño event of 2006/07.

"No two El Niño events are the same and stronger El Niño events do not necessarily relate to stronger impacts in Australia," Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino says.

"While the presence of El Niño and the background influence of climate change increase the likelihood of below-average peak snow depth in the Australian Alps this season, it only takes a few decent snowfalls to offset the influence of El Niño."

So overall, while strong or even relatively weak El Niños do not bode well for consistently snowy Australian winters in our snowfields, they don’t mean there’s no chance of a good season. You never know when a strong, cold system lurking in the Southern Ocean will surge across southeastern Australia.

Which resorts are most at risk of low snow levels?

As ever, Australia’s lowest ski resorts are most at risk of a poor snow season.

Even in 2025 – which was a decent season at higher altitude resorts like Perisher and Thredbo (NSW) and Mt Buller, Falls Creek and Mt Hotham (Vic) – Australia’s lower resorts like Mt Baw Baw (Vic) and Selwyn Snow Resort (NSW) had relatively short-lived, mediocre seasons.

Baw Baw tops out at around 1550 metres, while Selwyn’s highest point is around 1600 metres. Increasingly, the Australian snowpack is unreliable at lower elevations. So our lower resorts potentially have an extra level of vulnerability this year.

Image: No natural snow and not even a few patches of snowmaking snow on the snow cam at Selwyn Snow Resort in NSW on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Source: ski.com.au.

What are forecasters saying about long-term and short-term snow prospects this season?

The BoM’s latest long-range forecast for July to September, issued on June 11 (before El Niño was declared, predicted the likelihood of:

Below-average rainfall across parts of southern and eastern Australia.

Above-average daytime temperatures in Australia south of the tropics.

Above-average overnight temperatures for much of the country.

This is obviously not great news for snow, but as mentioned, individual or multiple weather events can change the picture quickly for the snowfields.

In the short-term, a few flakes are likely to fall on Friday into this Saturday with a coming system, but unfortunately, most of the moisture will likely fall as rain in warmer air ahead of the influx of cooler air from the south.

Looking further ahead towards the last week of June, further light snowfalls are possible but only at higher elevations. At this stage, no significant snow-laden cold front lies on the horizon.

Please check the Weatherzone snow page for the latest forecasts, live cam images and much more throughout the 2026 Australian snow season. Here's hoping the snowfields are soon at their wintry best.

Image: Ski runs at Mt Hotham in Victoria with Mt Feathertop in the background during a good Australian snow season. Source: iStock/Chris Gordon.