Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to redevelop off the north coast of Western Australia later this week, before possibly turning south and heading towards Perth this weekend.

Where is Narelle now?

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located near the west coast of the Northern Territory’s Top End on Monday morning. While the system made landfall over the eastern Top End as a category 3 tropical cyclone on Saturday night, it weakened below cyclone strength while moving over land on Sunday.

At 9:30am ACST on Monday, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle was a tropical low located over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf, near the west coast of the Top End, roughly 25 kilometres north northwest of Wadeye. At that time the system was moving towards the west at about 16 km/h.

The system caused heavy rain over the NT’s Top End during the last two days, with some areas receiving more than 200 mm in under 24 hours. This deluge comes on top of other heavy falls that flooded the region in recent weeks.

A rain gauge at Adelaide River Town collected 202 mm in the 24 hours to 9am on Monday. Unsurprisingly, this caused major flooding at Adelaide River, with major flooding also continuing at Daly River in response to this latest bout of heavy rain.

Kimberley next in line

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to cross the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Monday and move across the north Kimberley on Monday night into Tuesday morning. During this time, the system should remain a tropical low, below tropical cyclone strength.

The main threat in the Kimberley during Monday and Tuesday will be heavy rain and flooding, with computer models predicting more than 200 mm of rain in some areas over the next two days. Damaging gale force winds may also affect parts of the Kimberley coast as the system moves west on Monday and Tuesday.

Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the 48 hours ending at 9:30pm ACST on Tuesday, March 24, 2026. Source: Weatherzone.

Narelle to re-intensify from Wednesday

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle is likely to move off the Kimberley coast late on Tuesday and move in a west-southwesterly direction through the middle of this week. This track should allow the system to re-intensify as it moves out over open water.

The current forecast track from the Bureau of Meteorology predicts Narelle to become a tropical cyclone once again by Wednesday morning and reach category 3 strength by Wednesday night. Narelle is then expected to become a category 4 tropical cyclone as it tracks to the north of the Pilbara on Thursday. There is even a chance it will get stronger and become a category 5 tropical cyclone later this week.

Image: Forecast wind gusts at 2pm AWST on Thursday, March 26, 2026, showing Narelle as a powerful tropical cyclone to the north of Exmouth, WA. Source: Weatherzone.

Computer models suggest that Tropical Cyclone Narelle will turn towards the south from Friday, allowing it to track around WA’s North West Cape and start moving down the west coast this weekend, towards Perth.

Will Narelle reach Perth?

What happens to Tropical Cyclone Narelle beyond Friday is difficult to predict with much certainty at this stage.

If the system does track towards the south later this week, Narelle will most likely start to speed up and start to transition from a tropical cyclone to an extra-tropical cyclone. The main differences between these two types of low pressure systems are their energy source, shape and size:

Tropical cyclones get their energy from warm ocean water. These systems are usually compact and symmetrical, and the strongest winds are confined to a relatively small area close to the core.

Extra-tropical cyclones get their energy from horizontal differences in temperature and pressure in the atmosphere, which is called ‘baroclinic instability’. These systems are usually asymmetrical, and their strongest winds often cover a large area. Extra-tropical cyclones typically move much faster than tropical cyclones.

Despite their technical differences, tropical cyclones and extra-tropical cyclones are both dangerous systems capable of causing powerful winds, heavy rain and large waves.

Narelle may maintain its classification as a tropical cyclone when it reaches the west coast of WA later this week, although it may also transition to an extra-tropical before crossing the coast. At this stage, this WA landfall will most likely occur on Sunday somewhere near or to the north of Perth. If this happens, it could cause severe weather as it approaches and crosses the coast.

Image: Forecast mean sea level pressure and precipitable at 2 am AWST on Sunday, March 29, 2026. Source: Weatherzone.

It is unusual for ex-tropical cyclones to get this far south in WA, but it is certainly not unprecedented. According to the Bureau, 14 systems that had been classified as tropical cyclones brought gale force winds, or caused property damage, in Perth between 1910 and 2024. These damaging systems mostly occurred between January and May but were most common in March.

The most recent notable tropical cyclone that moved down WA’s west coast was Tropical Cyclone Seroja, which made landfall to the south of Kalbarri as a category 3 system in April 2021. Another notable system that impacted Perth was Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ned, which caused power disruptions and roof damage in the Perth region on April 1, 1989.