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Very dry, gusty winds to elevate fire risk this week

A broad high pressure system is poised to move across southern Australia later this week, bringing with it a very dry air mass and gusty southerly winds that could significantly heighten fire danger ratings in central and eastern regions of the country.

After a trough and front pass through southeastern Australia midweek, a robust high-pressure system will take control of the weather later in the week, bringing with it very dry air and strong southerly winds. The images below illustrate the 2-metre dew point temperature and wind fields expected late this week. Note that the dew point—a crucial indicator of atmospheric moisture—will drop well below 0°C over extensive areas (orange and red contours on the maps), signalling the presence of very dry air.

This dry air, combined with gusty winds, sets the stage for increased fire danger across broad regions, including SA, parts of Vic, inland NSW, Qld, and the NT’s interior. The most significant impacts are expected from Thursday to Saturday, with Thursday predicted to be the peak day, as winds reach their highest speeds of around 45-55 km/h.

Imges (top to bottom): 2-metre dew point temperature and wind field (barbs) for Thursday 24th, Friday 25th and Saturday 26th.

Considering these conditions, it’s important to understand that the reduction in moisture enhances the flammability of vegetation, making it easier for fires to ignite and spread rapidly. If fires develop, the gusty winds could exacerbate the situation, carrying embers over considerable distances and resulting in spot fires that can ignite well ahead of the main blaze. This dangerous combination not only elevates the risk of large-scale fire outbreaks but also poses threats to lives, property, and natural ecosystems.

Under these conditions, it is crucial for residents in at-risk areas to stay vigilant, take proactive measures, and regularly check the forecast to safeguard themselves and their property.