Parts of southeast Queensland and northeast NSW are likely to see severe thunderstorms on Thursday, with large hail, damaging winds and heavy rain all possible.

On Wednesday, thunderstorms developed over a broad area of southern Queensland and northern NSW as warm and moisture-laden air interacted with a low pressure trough and an unstable atmosphere. This setup produced numerous severe storms, causing powerful winds that brought down trees, and supercells that brought torrential rain and hail.

Thursday will once again be ripe for thunderstorms over eastern Australia, with storms possible over a broad area extending from central NSW up to northern Queensland. The area most likely to see severe thunderstorms on Thursday will be southeast Queensland and northeast NSW, stretching from the Wide Bay and Burnett District in Queensland down to the Northern Tablelands and Northern Rivers in NSW.

Thursday’s severe storm potential will be greatest over inland areas of southeast Queensland and northeast NSW, where converging winds will act as a trigger for storms, and copious atmospheric instability will help any nascent storms build to become towering cumulonimbus clouds. Some severe storms may also reach the coast, but the majority are expected to stay inland. Severe storms are most likely in the afternoon and early evening.

Unstable atmosphere ready to cause storms

One way meteorologists check for atmospheric instability is by using the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) index, which measures the potential energy in the atmosphere for storm development. Higher CAPE values mean increased potential for thunderstorms. As a general guide, CAPE values over 1000 J/kg are sufficient for severe thunderstorm development. When CAPE exceeds around 3000–4000 J/kg, atmospheric instability is extreme and there is an increased likelihood of violent storms and supercells.

Computer model guidance suggests that CAPE values could reach around 2500–3500 J/kg over parts of southeast Queensland and northeast NSW on Thursday, which is enough to produce severe thunderstorms and possibly supercells.

Image: Modelled CAPE over southeast Queensland and northeast NSW for 2 pm AEDT on Thursday, November 12, 2026. Source: Weatherzone.

Higher CAPE values do not guarantee that storms will develop, but they do indicate an elevated potential for intense and severe storms if they occur.

The Bureau of Meteorology will issue severe thunderstorm warnings throughout Thursday if any storms start to show signs of being capable of producing heavy rainfall, damaging winds gusts or large hail. Check the latest severe thunderstorm warnings in your area for the most up-to-date information and monitor the radar to see where storms are currently active.

More storms on the way

The storms over eastern Australia on Wednesday and Thursday are part of a prolonged period of wet and stormy weather that will continue to affect parts of Queensland and NSW between now and at least Monday next week.

Elsewhere, widespread showers and storms will also impact other areas of Australia over the coming week under the influence of low pressure troughs being fed with tropical moisture. There is potential for thunderstorms over part of every Australian state and territory during the next seven days.

Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the coming week. Source: Weatherzone.

Check your local forecasts for more detailed information about rain and thunderstorm potential over the coming week.