Tropical Cyclone Narelle is forecast to become a powerful category 5 system – the highest tier on the Australian cyclone scale – before making landfall over northern Queensland later this week.

Narelle strengthening over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Narelle first became a tropical cyclone on Tuesday and had quickly strengthened to a category 2 system by Tuesday night.

At 10 am AEST on Wednesday, Narelle was still a category 2 tropical cyclone, located about 970 km east northeast of Cooktown.

Narelle is forecast to track towards the west over the next few days, allowing it to move through a region that will support steady-to-rapid intensification as it approaches the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest forecast track map, issued at 10:42 am AEST on Wednesday, predicts that Narelle will become a category 3 severe tropical cyclone by Wednesday night. Further strengthening is forecast from Thursday, with the system expected to reach category 4 intensity by Thursday morning and possibly hitting category 5 by Friday morning.

At this stage, Tropical Cyclone Narelle could approach the coast as a category 5 system but will most likely make landfall as a category 4 system on Friday.

The Bureau notes that “A category 5 peak intensity is forecast. This is expected to occur shortly before interactions with the Queensland east coast increase, and consequently some weakening before the centre of Narelle is anticipated. If Narelle tracks a little further north it may maintain category 5 intensity until landfall.”

It’s important to point out that there is currently some uncertainty regarding how quickly Narelle will approach the Qld coast. It could move faster than expected and arrive on Thursday, which would limit how much it can intensify before landfall. Conversely, it could also track towards the west slower than is currently being forecast, which would give the system more time to gain strength before crossing the coast.

What impacts to expect from Narelle

The impacts from Narelle will depend on its strength at landfall.

At this stage, Narelle will most like be a category 4 severe tropical cyclone when it reaches the east coast of the Cape York Peninsula. This strength would allow Narelle to produce average wind speeds in excess of 160 km/h and gusts above 225 km/h.

Should Narelle manage to cross the coast as a category 5 tropical cyclone, average wind speeds would likely be above 200 km/h and gusts of 280 km/h or higher.

Heavy rain, flash flooding, large waves, storm surge and coastal inundation are all likely to occur as Narelle makes landfall, regardless of whether Narelle is category 4 or 5 as it crosses the coast.

At this stage, landfall will most likely occur somewhere between Port Douglas and Lockhart River. This is a region that already holds a world record for the largest storm surge from a tropical cyclone, when Tropical Cyclone Mahina caused a 13 metre storm surge near Bathurst Bay in March 1899.

Image: Forecast track map from the Bureau of Meteorology, issued at 10:42 am AEST on Wednesday, March 18, 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

Where will Narelle go after hitting Qld?

Tropical cyclones typically weaken after making landfall. While this post-landfall weakening is likely to occur after Narelle crosses the Qld coast, the system should pass over the Cape York Peninsula within about 12 hours.

Narelle could still be a category 1 tropical cyclone when it emerges off the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula. Forecast models suggest the cyclone will then reintensify as it tracks over warm water in the Gulf of Carpentaria this weekend.

Based on current model guidance, Narelle could make a second landfall over the Northern Territory’s Eastern Top End on the weekend, possibly as a severe tropical cyclone (category 3 or higher).

What Narelle does beyond this weekend is currently difficult to predict. Some computer models suggest that it will continue moving towards the west, carrying heavy rain over the NT and Kimberley on the weekend and early next week. The system could emerge off the north coast of Western Australia next week and possibly intensify once again. While forecast confidence is low for next week, there is a chance Narelle will impact the Pilbara coast at some point next week.

It is incredibly rare to see a single tropical cyclone impacting three Australian states. The last time this happened was in 2005 when Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid followed a similar path, forming over the Coral Sea before making landfall in Qld, the NT and then WA.

How to prepare for Narelle

Anyone in northern Australia should get prepared and stay informed during this tropical cyclone. The Bureau recommends the following actions for residents in Qld:

Stay informed by checking your local government’s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App, Apple , Android, online www.132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

The NT Police, Fire and Emergency Services and WA’s Department of Fire and Emergency Services also have useful information on their websites to help plan and prepare for tropical cyclones.