The relatively dry 2026 winter across eastern Queensland and New South Wales has created the conditions for a potentially volatile spring bushfire season, especially with the strengthening El Niño.

As the map below shows, winter rainfall was below average or very much below average across most of eastern subtropical Queensland and eastern New South Wales, with the exception (in NSW) of the north coast and adjacent ranges where rainfall was around average.

Examples of eastern Australia locations which were dry in the 2026 winter

Qld

Rockhampton, in Queensland's Capricornia region, didn't even break double digits for its winter rainfall. While winter is typically dry, the 2026 winter total of 9.8 mm was only 10% of the long-term seasonal average of 98.2 mm.

Image: Last 12 months of rainfall for Rockhampton, Qld. Source: Weatherzone.

Toowoomba, around seven hours south of Rockhampton on the eastern edge of the Darling Downs, received 48.2 mm, which was just over half the long-term average of 94.9 mm.

NSW

Bombala, on the tableland between the Snowy Mountains and the South Coast in the far southeastern corner of NSW, had an exceptionally dry winter with just 35.8 mm. That was around one quarter of the long-term seasonal average of 145.1 mm.

Image: Last 12 months of rainfall for Bombala, NSW. Source: Weatherzone.

Tenterfield, on the Northern Tablelands near the Qld border, had 63.6 mm of rain compared to the winter average of 145 mm, which was well under half the seasonal norm.

Vic

The map near the top of this story shows that Mallacoota, in East Gippsland near the NSW border, was in the red zone for very much below average rainfall.

The coastal town, which lost more than 100 homes in Black Summer bushfires, received just 78.2 mm of rainfall across the 2026 winter, which was less than a third of the seasonal average of 244.4 mm.

Dry winter fuels spring bushfire risk

As the image below shows, the period from September to November is the peak fire danger season in eastern Queensland and far northeastern New South Wales – where many of this winter's most severe rainfall deficiencies occurred.

Image: Peak fire danger season across Australia. Source: BoM.

The risk is all the more serious given the strength of the current El Niño – a climate driver which tends to cause drier-than-usual conditions in eastern Australia and some other parts of the country.

Could a wet spring moderate the danger of summer bushfires?

Image: Map showing the average impact of El Niño on spring rainfall. Source: BoM.

Even during a strong El Niño, there is always the chance of significant spring rainfall in many parts of Australia.

Unfortunately for those hoping for rain in areas which experienced a dry winter, the BoM's latest spring rainfall outlook, issued on August 27, says that spring rainfall is likely to be below average for the far southwest of WA, as well as for southeast Australia including Tasmania, and parts of eastern and northern Qld.

A reminder that bushfires can occur even in areas that did not experience rainfall deficiencies over winter. As the Australian and New Zealand Council for Fire and Emergency Services (AFAC) said in its Spring 2026 Seasonal Bushfire Outlook:

"While some areas are facing an elevated risk of fire this spring, bushfires can still occur in regions with a normal seasonal outlook. Communities are encouraged to stay informed, monitor local conditions and follow advice from their fire and emergency services as the season unfolds."