Rain and thunderstorms will spread across a broad area of central and eastern Australia between Monday and Wednesday this week. Severe thunderstorms are likely in several states and flooding will be a risk for parts of NSW and Victoria.

A low pressure system and associated low pressure trough interacting with a feed of tropical moisture will cause the outbreak of rain and storms during the first half of this week.

The satellite image below shows clouds associated with this low and trough sitting over central and southern Australia on Monday.

Rain and storms spreading from west to east

Rain was mainly falling over SA, the southern NT and Tasmania on Monday morning but will spread further east into Qld, NSW and Vic on Monday afternoon and night. Thunderstorms are also likely to develop over parts of SA and the NT from Monday afternoon.

As the system moves further east on Monday night and Tuesday, rain and storms will increase over Vic, NSW and southern Qld, with showers also lingering in parts of SA and Tas.

Rain is likely to become heavy along the ranges in southern NSW and northeast Vic from Monday night into Tuesday morning, which has prompted severe weather warnings for heavy rainfall and flash flooding in both states. A flood watch is also in place for parts of North West, Central and North East Victoria, where minor to moderate flooding is possible from Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms are possible over a broad corridor stretching from northern Vic up through western NSW and into southern Qld on Tuesday.

Image: Modelled thunderstorm risk at 4 pm AEST on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. This is just a guide to thunderstorm risk and storms can occur outside the shaded areas in this image. Source: Weatherzone.

The system will start moving off the east coast and out over the Tasman Sea from Wednesday, causing rain and storms to contract to eastern NSW and southeast Qld. Drier and calmer weather will return to eastern Australia from Thursday.

Most of the thunderstorms associated with this system will occur behind the initial rain band because that is where the atmosphere will be most unstable. This means some areas may see a period of persistent rain followed by potentially severe thunderstorm activity.

How much rain will fall?

This system will be tapping into a good amount of atmospheric moisture and converting it to rain. In some areas, this rain will be enhanced by thunderstorms or orographic lifting (air rising over a mountain range), causing localised areas of heavy rainfall.

Widespread rainfall totals of 10 to 30 mm are likely in SA, Vic, NSW, the ACT and southern Qld, and parts of the NT and Tas. Heavier falls are likely on and west of the ranges in southern NSW and northeast Vic, where accumulated totals could reach about 50 to 100 mm, with most of this falling between Monday night and Tuesday night.

Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the 72 hours ending at 10 pm AEST on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Source: Weatherzone.

Staying safe in this severe weather event

Check the latest warnings and road closures in your area for the most up-to-date information before heading out and remember to never drive through floodwater.

Several warnings have already been issued for this system, including a flood watch for riverine flooding and severe weather warnings for heavy rain and flash flooding. The Bureau of Meteorology also has the following safety advice:

Don't drive, walk, swim or play in floodwater because it is dangerous.

Stay away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways.

Obey road closure signs. Plan ahead so you don't drive on flooded roads.

Check the ABC and local media for updates. The situation can change quickly, so stay informed.

Contact the State Emergency Service on 132 500 if you need emergency assistance. Always call 000 (triple-zero) in life-threatening emergencies.