Rain is spreading into Victoria from southern New South Wales and the southeastern corner of South Australia, with significant totals expected in most districts over the next few days, and heavy falls developing in parts of the east and south on Friday.
The radar loop below shows the first bands of rain pushing across Victoria in the four hours up until 10:30 am this Thursday, October 1.
What is causing the rain?
The first of a series of troughs is crossing Victoria this Thursday. This system is tapping into tropical moisture which has travelled all the way across the continent from the Indian Ocean.
Image: Rain radar and atmospheric water vapour loop across Australia for the four hours to 10:30am (AEST) on Thursday, October 1, 2026. Source: Weatherzone.
Rain will become heavier in many districts from Thursday afternoon, and the rain will continue to intensify on Friday in many parts of Victoria as a broad low pressure system develops across the state’s north.
The BoM issued an initial flood watch for parts of the Gippsland, North East And Central forecast districts as early as Wednesday ahead of this system. Expect further warnings to follow.
Rain becomes very heavy on Friday
“A cold front and upper low will cross southeastern Australia from Friday,” Weatherzone meteorologist Joel Pippard explains.
"As it passes into southern New South Wales, a surface low will form and direct a stream of moist ESE winds into the Gippsland region of Victoria.
“While the trough and front will produce scattered severe thunderstorms through NSW, heavy rainfall will fall south and east of the ranges in Victoria (most intense around Sale in Gippsland), but also heavy around Lorne and the Otway Ranges along the Great Ocean Road, and even in the southern Mount Lofty Ranges in SA.”
While extremely heavy rainfall over a relatively short period obviously presents the risk of both flash flooding and riverine flooding, rain in eastern Victoria is much-needed. The image below shows how eastern Victoria had a very dry winter in 2026. This pattern continued through September.
Image: Rainfall deciles in Victoria in winter 2026. Source: BoM.
Resemblance to severe Victorian weather system in January 2026
The developing system has some similarities to a major weather event in mid-January this year, when cars were swept away in Wye River, along the Great Ocean Road, after a day of intense rainfall.
On that day, 175.4 mm of rainfall was recorded in six hours at a weather station at Mt Cowley (670 metres), the highest point in the Otway Ranges.
While the current synoptic set-up is similar, it’s worth noting that this is a spring weather event, not a mid-summer event, meaning there is less heat energy and moisture driving potentially intense rainfall.
This is still a potentially dangerous period for Victoria and some adjacent parts of SA and NSW, so please check the latest information on the Weatherzone warnings page as this system develops.