The lean 2026 snow season looks set to continue for the rest of July, with forecast models playing down prospects of any heavy snow over at least the coming week. But there is still hope on the horizon.
Slow start to 2026 snow season
Australia’s mainland alpine area has received well-below-average snow so far this season. This was caused by a lack of strong cold fronts and a dominance of high pressure systems near southeastern Australia. The influence of a strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean has also likely contributed to lower-than-average precipitation in recent weeks.
How much snow is on the ground?
Despite a bout of decent snow in Tasmania and a dusting in parts of Victoria on Thursday into Friday morning, snow cover is running well below average across the Alps. There is some snow at higher elevations, but most low-lying areas of Australia's alpine region currently have no snow on the ground.
The natural snow depth at Spencers Creek in NSW – which sits at 1830 m above sea level between Perisher and Thredbo – was 68 cm on July 21 this year. This is well below average for this time of year and the lowest depth since 2015 for this point in the season.
On average, there is usually around 100 cm of snow on the ground at Spencers Creek in the middle of July. By late July, measurements at Spencers Creek average around 120 cm.
Image: Enhanced satellite image captured on July 17, 2026, showing snow in red. Source: NASA Worldview / Terra.
Is there snow on the way?
Earlier this week, computer models were hinting at a strong cold front bringing good snowfalls to the Australian Alps next week. Unfortunately, this system is now expected to be a clipper – a fast-moving system that tracks quickly without lingering long enough to drop significant precipitation. This means next week’s system will most likely pass over southeastern Australia too quickly to deliver much snow in the Alps.
There is still a chance the models will change again and increase the prospects for snow next week. However, at this stage, it looks like there won’t be much natural snow over the mainland Alps in the final week of July.
Looking further ahead, the presence of a strengthening El Niño increases the likelihood that southeastern Australia will see below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures in August and into spring. This combination does not bode well for snow.
On a more positive note, there is still plenty of time left for snow to fall in the Australian Alps this year. The average season peak depth at Spencers Creek usually occurs between late August and mid-September. Check the Weatherzone snow page for the latest snow forecasts in the coming months.