Melbourne serves up surprisingly stable temperatures in lead-up to Australian Open

Famous for its wildly fluctuating weather, Melbourne is turning on a run of uncharacteristically stable temperatures in the lead-up to the start of the 2026 Australian Open tennis this Sunday.

Melbourne’s average maximum in January (the hottest month) is 26°C. Historically, that’s because you tend to get hot bursts in the 30s or even low 40s, mixed in with cool bursts in the high teens or low 20s.

Recent weeks have provided good examples of Melbourne’s summer maximum temperature swings:

Melbourne started last week with maximums of just 20.1°C and 20.6°C on Monday and Tuesday before soaring to 42.9°C on Friday, as temperatures topped 44°C in some outer suburbs.

A few weeks ago in December, Melbourne’s maximum jumped almost 20 degrees from 18.6°C to 38.3°C within just two days.

But this week, Melbourne can expect maximums of 23°C, 26°C, 24°C, 25°C, 27°C, 29°C and 29°C from today (Tuesday) through to Sunday.

So there’s a gradual warming trend, but no wild swings of the type most people would take when trying to return Novak Djokovic’s serve.

Any chance of rain in Melbourne this week?

Melbourne has hardly seen a drop of rain so far in 2026, with just 0.2mm recorded last Saturday, which was barely enough to dampen the ground. December was also relatively dry, with just under half the average monthly rainfall.

Rod Laver Arena, the main court for the Australian Open tennis tournament
Image: Rain forecast map for Victoria for the three days up until the morning of Friday, January 16, according to the ECMWF model.

Thursday is the hope to break the dry spell, but it’s a tricky one to predict with confidence. Melbourne’s rain most commonly arrives from the north, west, or south, but any rain this Thursday is likely to arrive from the east.

"A low pressure trough will move over southeastern Australia and start to draw moisture all the way from the Coral Sea in Queensland," Weatherzone meteorologist Felix Levesque explains.

"That moisture will wrap into NSW and SE Victoria, with potentially some rain for Melbourne. The most likely total is in the 1-5 mm range with heavier stuff further east and south into Bass Strait. But potentially, Melbourne could see 10-20 mm depending on the depth of the moisture feed."

What about the weather for week one of the Australian Open?

5 days to go. Big names, bigger moments loading... @ROLEX #AO26 #countdown pic.twitter.com/poT5eFhbVm

— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 13, 2026

That 29-degree day forecast for the start of the main draw this Sunday, January 18, should be a sign of things to come for the first few days of the tournament.

Some models are suggesting a spike of heat in the mid-to-high 30s is possible by midweek next week, although the most likely scenario appears to be a continuation of moderate temperatures in the mid-20s.

If the weather isn’t classic “four-seasons-in-a-day" or even “four-seasons-in-a-week" Melbourne weather, we’re sure most fans and players won’t argue.