Persistent and heavy rain will affect parts of Queensland and NSW during at least the next seven days, with some areas possibly in line to receive more than one month’s rain in a matter of days.

Why is so much rain on the way?

Two separate streams of moisture-laden air will collide over eastern Australia in the coming week. One will come from winds in the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere carrying moisture across Australia from the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, in the lower atmosphere closer to the surface, winds will flow towards Australia from the Coral and Tasman Seas, providing a secondary source of moisture above eastern Australia.

In addition to this abundance of moisture, a series of upper-level troughs will provide ample atmospheric instability over parts of Queensland and NSW in the coming week. This will create an ideal environment for rain and thunderstorm development.

How much rain will fall?

It is important to note that there is a high amount of model uncertainty regarding how much rain will fall over the next week and exactly where the heaviest falls will occur.

At this stage, most computer models agree that rain and thunderstorms will affect a broad area of eastern, northern and southern Australia in the coming week, with rain likely to fall over part of every state and territory.

There is also good consensus that a large region extending from central Queensland down to northeast NSW will receive heavy rainfall, possibly more than 100 mm in the coming week, which would exceed the October average for some locations.

Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the seven days ending at 11pm AEDT on Monday, October 26, 2026. Source: Weatherzone.

While rain is likely to fall over parts of Queensland and NSW each day between now and at least next Wednesday, periods of heavier rain are possible, including this Thursday when heavier falls are expected to develop over southeast Queensland and northeast NSW.

The coming week’s rain and thunderstorms may cause flooding in parts of Queensland and northeast NSW. Be sure to check the latest severe weather, severe thunderstorm and flood warnings in your area for the most up to date information.