Fresh snow is forecast to fall in the Australian Alps this weekend, after the heaviest falls of the season to date last Friday.

The coming system is not expected to deliver a huge quantity of snow. Totals in the vicinity of 10 to 15 cm at the mid-level of most ski resorts, with slightly more at higher elevations, appear a realistic outcome at this stage, with the most consistent period of snow showers occurring on Sunday.

But after a lean start to the 2026 snow season, every flake will be welcomed by snow enthusiasts and the resort staff and nearby businesses which depend on the tourist trade.

Let’s take a look at the 2026 season to date before we dive further into the impending snowy weather system.

35 cm snowpack after slow start to snow season

This week, hydro-electric operator Snowy Hydro measured the snowpack at 35.4 cm at Spencers Creek – roughly halfway between the NSW resorts of Perisher and Thredbo. Spencers Creek is the highest of three sites where depths have been regularly measured in the cooler months since 1954.

This season was only the second time on record when Spencers Creek was snowless on July 1. While early snow fell before the King’s Birthday long weekend season opening, several moist airmasses with tropical origins then crossed the mountains during June, bringing rain, not snow.

Last Friday’s snowfall was a step in the right direction. Since then, the weather has been cool, dry and sunny, enabling the snowpack to condense and form a firm base on which further snowfalls can accumulate. And as mentioned, a top-up looms on the immediate horizon.

Image: Sunny skies at Perisher on July 7, 2026. Source: Steve Smith.

Windy, snowy weekend ahead

When snow falls in Australia, it usually arrives with strong winds, as the vast majority of our snow-bearing systems originate in the strong band of westerlies which circulate the globe south of Australia.

The cold front tracking towards southeastern Australia this weekend will be a classic wild, windy, wintry system which will make conditions decidedly unpleasant on in the mountains.

At this stage, it doesn’t look like the coldest or snowiest system of the winter, as the cold front will only clip the southeast corner of the mainland. But Tasmania could be in for heavier snowfalls, with totals of 20 cm or more likely over the Central Highlands.

Image: Precipitable water and mean sea level pressure for Australia predicted for Australia on July 11, 2026, according to the ECMWF model, showing the westerly flow that will bring snow to the mountains of southeastern Australia. Source: Weatherzone.

How is the rest of the season looking for snowfalls?

It’s still only relatively early in the season, so there is plenty of time for 2026 to turn into a good snow year.

Famously, the 1991 season started poorly like 2026 before frequent snowfalls from mid-July onwards took the season peak to almost three metres at Spencers Creek. That could still happen.

Image: A comparison of the 1991 season (light blue) and 2026 season to date (dark blue) at Spencers Creek, NSW. Source: Snowy Hydro.

Currently, there are two broad-scale climate drivers affecting Australian weather which are not historically conducive to consistent heavy snowfalls: the positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño.

During a positive SAM, the band of westerlies that bring snow to southern Australia tend to circulate the globe at latitudes closer to Antarctica.

The SAM index recently hit a three-year high, which was not great news for potential snowfalls. But the SAM now appears to be trending towards a neutral phase.

Image: Movement of the SAM index over the past 12 months. Source: BoM.

We’re also in an El Niño, which historically has coincided with relatively meagre Australian snow seasons.

READ MORE: How do 'super' El Niño events affect the Australian snow season?

The good news is that day-to-day weather systems can often defy the broad-scale influences of climate drivers, so there remains realistic hope for snowy systems to follow this weekend’s top-up.

Please check the Weatherzone snow page for the latest forecasts, live cam images and more.