Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Northern Territory Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1331 UTC 21/03/2026 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle Identifier: 34U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 13.2S Longitude: 136.9E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: west (260 deg) Speed of Movement: 10 knots (19 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots (130 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots (185 km/h) Central Pressure: 973 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: 35 nm (35 km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 21/1800: 13.4S 135.9E: 025 (050): 065 (120): 978 +12: 22/0000: 13.7S 134.7E: 035 (070): 040 (075): 995 +18: 22/0600: 13.8S 133.5E: 045 (085): 030 (055): 1000 +24: 22/1200: 14.0S 132.2E: 050 (090): 030 (055): 1000 +36: 23/0000: 14.3S 129.5E: 055 (100): 030 (055): 999 +48: 23/1200: 14.8S 127.1E: 055 (100): 030 (055): 998 +60: 24/0000: 15.2S 124.6E: 060 (110): 030 (055): 998 +72: 24/1200: 15.9S 122.6E: 065 (125): 040 (075): 994 +96: 25/1200: 17.2S 118.4E: 080 (150): 065 (120): 978 +120: 26/1200: 18.7S 114.2E: 115 (215): 085 (155): 957 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is within hours of reaching the eastern Northern Territory coast as a category 3 system. The broad centre of Narelle is evident on the Gove radar, in addition to infra-red satellite imagery and earlier microwave imagery. The centre is broad and, In spite of the presence of vertical wind shear (easterly at 20kn at 1200 UTC), development has occurred with improved curvature in infrared imagery. Intensity 70kn slightly higher than subjective Dvorak based on objective guidance, partial SAR (RCM-1 at 0903UTC) and a strong radar signature. The wind structure is well represented by recent ASCAT-B at 11280 UTC, the partial SAR pass in addition to observations of gales at Groote Eylandt and Gove Airport (near Nhulunbuy). Dvorak analysis: DT=4.0 based on curved band wrap of 0.9 (3.5+0.5 addition for cold cloud tops on EIR); MET=4.0 on D 1.0/24h. Objective aids at 1200 UTC (1-min means): ADT 79 kn, AiDT 78 kn, DPRINT 69 kn, DMINT (0720 UTC) 61 kn and SATCON (0700 UTC) 60 kn. Narelle has begun to impact the eastern Northern Territory coast and aside from the ongoing easterly winds shear, the environment remains generally favourable due to warm SSTs and high moisture until it reaches land. Guidance then shows rapid weakening over land although heavy rainfall will extend across the Northern Territory as the system tracks steadily west on Sunday and Monday. A strong mid-level ridge extending across Australia will remain the dominant steering mechanism for Narelle well into next week. There is high confidence in a westward forecast track across northern Australia. This briefly takes it over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Monday where gales may redevelop over water, then over the northern Kimberley, and moving offshore again on Tuesday. The range of model guidance is consistent in suggesting development into a severe tropical cyclone as it moves roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and Thursday. The range of scenarios then include a more southward track off the WA west coast towards next weekend. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/1930 UTC.