Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1336 UTC 04/03/2026 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 29U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 15.0S Longitude: 150.3E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: south southwest (213 deg) Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h) Central Pressure: 998 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm (240 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 04/1800: 15.1S 149.7E: 030 (060): 035 (065): 995 +12: 05/0000: 15.2S 149.2E: 040 (080): 040 (075): 993 +18: 05/0600: 15.6S 148.4E: 050 (090): 040 (075): 993 +24: 05/1200: 15.9S 147.5E: 055 (100): 040 (075): 993 +36: 06/0000: 16.9S 146.3E: 070 (125): 040 (075): 993 +48: 06/1200: 18.2S 144.2E: 105 (200): 030 (055): 1000 +60: 07/0000: 19.4S 142.6E: 135 (245): 025 (045): 1002 +72: 07/1200: 20.0S 141.2E: 155 (285): 020 (035): 1004 +96: 08/1200: 20.9S 141.7E: 195 (360): 020 (035): 1004 +120: 09/1200: None None: None (None): None (None): None REMARKS: Tropical Low 29U remains sheared and struggling to develop. The low level centre was located using the ASCAT pass at 1040 UTC with moderate confidence. The centre remains somewhat elongated and well displaced from the deep convective mass to the west, confirming that deep layer easterly shear continues to be a significant impediment to development. Dvorak analysis applied a shear pattern with the deep convection displaced approximately 1.25 degrees from the LLCC. DT is 1.5. MET is 2.5 based on a 24 hour D- trend, with PAT adjusted down to 2.0. Final T based on PAT, FT = CI = 2.0. Objective guidance at 1200 UTC (1 minute means): ADT 30 kn, AiDT 34 kn, DPRINT 30 kn, DMINT (0916 UTC) 31 kn. Intensity estimated at 30 knots based on ASCAT which is consistent with the objective aids. The wind max is in the monsoonal westerlies to the north of the centre which show little curvature and are yet to wrap around the system significantly. CIMSS upper wind analysis indicates that the system remains under the influence of moderate to strong easterly vertical wind shear of approximately 20 knots. Some upper divergence is analysed associated with the convective mass to the west. Other environmental factors are relatively favourable, with SSTs high at 29-30C and good low level forcing from the southeasterlies and monsoonal westerlies, but while the system remains titled to this degree, it will struggle to develop. A mid-level ridge extending from mainland Australia into the western Coral Sea is expected to be the main steering influence, and there is broad agreement across all numerical guidance on a southwesterly track, with most guidance suggesting landfall on the northeast Queensland coast on Friday. A drift to the south is expected to take the system into a slightly less hostile shear environment, and therefore some strengthening is forecast prior to landfall in line with most numerical guidance. There remains a moderate risk that the system could attain tropical cyclone strength prior to landfall. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 04/1930 UTC.