National
Mon 17:32 AEST
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0732 UTC 06/04/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila
Identifier: 37U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 9.9S
Longitude: 155.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: southeast (124 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots (185 km/h)
Central Pressure: 968 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (240 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (30 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 06/1200: 9.9S 155.4E: 030 (060): 070 (130): 966
+12: 06/1800: 9.9S 155.7E: 040 (075): 080 (150): 958
+18: 07/0000: 10.0S 156.0E: 045 (085): 085 (155): 953
+24: 07/0600: 10.0S 156.1E: 050 (090): 090 (165): 947
+36: 07/1800: 9.9S 155.9E: 055 (100): 090 (165): 947
+48: 08/0600: 9.8S 155.4E: 065 (115): 085 (155): 953
+60: 08/1800: 9.8S 154.6E: 075 (140): 075 (140): 963
+72: 09/0600: 10.3S 153.4E: 090 (170): 070 (130): 968
+96: 10/0600: 11.6S 150.1E: 115 (215): 065 (120): 973
+120: 11/0600: 12.5S 147.0E: 155 (285): 070 (130): 969
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila meandering in the Solomon Sea. Position is based on animated Vis imagery, and was assisted by an earlier AMSR2 pass at 0255 UTC with good confidence. Intensity is assessed at 70 kn, influenced by a consensus of subjective Dvorak and objective guidance (particularly SATCON). Dvorak analysis DT varies from 4.0 applying a Vis curved band pattern (1.1), to 5.0 applying an EIR embedded centre pattern higher. MET=3.5 based on a W- 24h trend and adjusted to 4.0. FT/CI=4.0/4.5. Available objective guidance at 0600 UTC (all 1-minute mean) includes ADT 57 kn, AiDT 61 kn, DPRINT 83 kn, DMINT 73kn (0320 UTC), MW sounders 92 kn (0319 UTC), and SATCON 83 kn. Maila remains in an environment generally favourable for further intensification, with vertical wind shear 16 kn easterly, SSTs near 30C, and good upper-level outflow, especially equatorward. Guidance suggests some further intensification into Tuesday then followed by some weakening. The slow motion will likely cause upwelling of cooler water aiding to weaken the system. The extent of any weakening on Thursday will also depend on whether it tracks over eastern PNG as suggested by some guidance. The steering pattern remains finely balanced, with a ridge to the south and northwesterly flow to the north. The current short term motion to the east southeast is forecast to turn to the northwest later Tuesday. By Thursday, a strengthening mid-level ridge to the east is expected to steer Maila west southwest. This takes it past the PNG southeastern islands that could face a prolonged period of very hazardous winds. There is increasing confidence in a track towards the Cape York Peninsula later in the week. Confidence in this steering direction has increased however there still remains considerable spread in the speed of motion.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1330 UTC.