Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1334 UTC 18/03/2026 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle Identifier: 34U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 12.8S Longitude: 150.7E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (258 deg) Speed of Movement: 14 knots (26 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h) Central Pressure: 963 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm (25 km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 18/1800: 13.2S 149.4E: 030 (060): 090 (165): 959 +12: 19/0000: 13.5S 148.1E: 040 (080): 095 (175): 954 +18: 19/0600: 13.6S 146.8E: 050 (095): 105 (195): 943 +24: 19/1200: 13.6S 145.7E: 055 (100): 105 (195): 943 +36: 20/0000: 13.6S 143.7E: 060 (115): 085 (155): 963 +48: 20/1200: 13.5S 141.6E: 070 (130): 045 (085): 993 +60: 21/0000: 13.5S 139.3E: 070 (130): 060 (110): 984 +72: 21/1200: 13.6S 137.0E: 070 (135): 070 (130): 976 +96: 22/1200: 13.7S 132.4E: 090 (165): 030 (055): 1002 +120: 23/1200: 14.1S 128.5E: 100 (185): 030 (055): 1002 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) showing continued intensification and maintaining a steady west southwest track. WIth no useful recent microwave imagery, analysis position is based on animated IR imagery with moderate confidence. Recent scatterometer passes only caught the western periphery. IR imagery is indicative of an eye trying to form but an eye pattern analysis has either not been possible or is not appropriate on most images. An Embedded Centre pattern analysis consistently yields a DT of 5.0 and MET and PAT are in agreement based on a D+ trend. Objective analysis aids available for 1200 UTC (1-min means): ADT 77 knots, AiDT 79 knots, DPRINT 71 knots. Intensity analysed at 80 knots (10-min) which is slightly higher than the objective aids but within error bounds. CIMSS wind shear analysis at 1200 UTC indicated 19 knots from the east northeast. However with very warm sea surface temperatures above 28 C, the system is likely to continue to slowly develop even if the shear remains moderate. Although there is dry air to the west there is no indication of it affecting the inner core of the system and with the shear vector from the east northeast it is unlikely to impact intensification. Steady intensification is forecast until the system nears the coast. The rate of intensification may be aided from Thursday by the approach of a new upper trough leading to an increase in upper divergence and poleward outflow. A category 4 peak intensity is forecast. There is very good confidence in the westward tracks of Narelle, with the subtropical ridge to the south the dominating steering mechanism. There remains, however, some variation in how quickly Narelle moves west, and Narelle may approach the north east Queensland coast as early as Thursday evening, which is earlier than the current most likely forecast track. After crossing the east Queensland Coast Narelle is expected to continue to be steered to the west by the subtropical ridge, moving back over waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria, most likely overnight Friday or during Saturday. As Narelle moves across the Cape York Peninsula it is likely to considerably weaken, though is expected to remain a tropical cyclone. Once over Gulf waters, the environment continues to be favourable and re-intensification is forecast. There is forecast to be enough time over the warm waters of the Gulf (SSTs are around 30 C), with light wind shear, and sufficient deep moisture for Narelle to intensify to a severe tropical cyclone again before crossing the eastern coast of the Northern Territory. Looking further ahead, after crossing the Northern Territory coast, Narelle is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity and continue its track west, moving across the Top End and then the Kimberly as a tropical low. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/1930 UTC.