Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1259 UTC 09/04/2026 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila Identifier: 37U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 8.2S Longitude: 154.3E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: west northwest (293 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots (155 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots (220 km/h) Central Pressure: 956 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: 35 nm (35 km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/5.0/W1.5/24HRS STT:W1.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 09/1800: 8.3S 154.0E: 035 (060): 085 (155): 956 +12: 10/0000: 8.5S 153.7E: 040 (080): 080 (150): 961 +18: 10/0600: 8.6S 153.5E: 050 (090): 075 (140): 965 +24: 10/1200: 8.8S 153.1E: 055 (100): 070 (130): 970 +36: 11/0000: 9.3S 152.5E: 070 (135): 065 (120): 974 +48: 11/1200: 10.5S 151.6E: 095 (175): 065 (120): 975 +60: 12/0000: 11.5S 150.4E: 115 (210): 065 (120): 975 +72: 12/1200: 12.0S 149.3E: 135 (255): 060 (110): 978 +96: 13/1200: 12.6S 146.2E: 175 (325): 055 (100): 982 +120: 14/1200: 13.4S 142.9E: 190 (350): 040 (075): 992 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila is slowly weakening in the Solomon Sea. Position is based on animated EIR imagery with moderate confidence. Weakening has been evident over the past 6 hours, with the eye fluctuating on EIR imager, there have been bursts of deep convection but the eye is not always present. The satellite presentation also indicates the system is suffering under strong NE shear, there is a sharp temperature gradient evident with a distinct narrowing of the eye wall on the eastern side. Intensity is assessed at 85 knots, consistent with subjective Dvorak and objective guidance. Dvorak analysis has been based on an eye pattern or an embedded centre pattern. Most recent eye pattern had a LG surround with a MG eye in W surround which yielded a 5.0. An embedded centre in DG yielded a 4.5. The three hour average DT was 4.5. MET=4.5 based on a 24 hr W trend, with no adjustment for PT. FT/CI is set at 4.5/5.0. Available objective guidance at 1120UTC (all 1-minute mean): ADT 102 knots, AiDT 93 knots and DPRINT 99 knots. DMINT (0816 UTC) 90 knots, MW Sounders N/A, and SATCON N/A knots. The most recent assessment of the environment shows that conditions are not as favourable as previous, particularly the vertical wind shear which has increased to 25-30 knots from the NE. There has been upwelling of cooler sea surface temperatures induced by the slow movement of the system but it is unclear if this is affecting Maila. Upper divergence remains strong with good outflow to the west of the system. Model guidance had not been consistent with respect to the intensity of Maila however it appears to be coming to a consensus that Maila will gradually weaken over coming days. Longer term the intensity will likely depend on land interaction with PNG and whether or not it moves into the Coral Sea as a tropical cyclone. Maila remains in a weak steering pattern and is forecast to move slowly to the west over the next 12 to 24 hours. Model guidance has once again become divergent on where Maila is likely to move in the longer term however the most likely track will take Maila southwest and close to southeastern Papua New Guinea, where a prolonged period of destructive winds is possible. After passing Papua New Guinea, Maila is expected to continue generally to the west to west-southwest towards the Cape York Peninsula. There remains considerable spread in the long term track and the forward speed of the system. Impacts to the Queensland coast are possible from as early as Saturday night through to early next week, and the current spread in guidance extends from Cape York to the North Tropical Coast, though the most likely crossing remains near Coen and the Lockhart River region. An alternative scenario that recent model guidance has begun to indicate is that Maila will continue to track to the west northwest towards the southeastern parts of Papua New Guinea. In this scenario, interactions with the topography of this region could cause Maila to weaken rapidly over the weekend, and dissipate into a trough in the Coral Sea early next week. If the system continues to move to the west northwest, this scenario becomes more likely and the chance of impacts to the Queensland coast decreases. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/1930 UTC.