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Sat 23:34 AEST
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1334 UTC 04/04/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Maila
Identifier: 37U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 9.1S
Longitude: 154.7E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm (60 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 04/1800: 9.2S 154.7E: 035 (070): 050 (095): 984
+12: 05/0000: 9.3S 154.5E: 045 (085): 055 (100): 980
+18: 05/0600: 9.4S 154.4E: 055 (100): 060 (110): 976
+24: 05/1200: 9.4S 154.4E: 060 (110): 065 (120): 971
+36: 06/0000: 9.6S 154.8E: 070 (130): 075 (140): 964
+48: 06/1200: 9.9S 155.4E: 075 (140): 080 (150): 959
+60: 07/0000: 10.1S 155.7E: 085 (155): 085 (155): 954
+72: 07/1200: 10.0S 155.9E: 090 (165): 085 (155): 954
+96: 08/1200: 10.2S 155.9E: 125 (230): 070 (130): 968
+120: 09/1200: 11.0S 154.6E: 180 (335): 070 (130): 969
REMARKS:
37U has developed into Tropical Cyclone Maila. Position is based on IR satellite imagery with moderate confidence, and the centre is located in the Papua New Guinea region. The satellite imagery indicates 37U is still currently being affected by easterly shear, with convection for the most part in western quadrants. HYSCAT pass at 0830 UTC indicated gales occurring to the north of the centre. With modest development to the southwest since, gales are also analysed here. Intensity is assessed at 40 knots, based on earlier partial ASCAT at 2306 UTC and the limited collection of objective aids, which when adjusted to a 10-minute mean are in general agreement. Dvorak analysis gives DT = 3.5 from a shear pattern or 2.5 using a curved band, with MET = 2.5 and no PT adjustment; FT/CI is set at 2.5/2.5. Available objective guidance at 1110 UTC (all 1-min mean); ADT 51 kn, AiDT 39 kn, DPRINT 47 kn, DMINT (0816UTC) 46 kn. Environmental conditions are favourable for further intensification, despite current easterly wind shear of around 20 knots (CIMSS analysis 19 kn at 0600 UTC). This shear is expected to weaken as the upper trough to the southeast moves away, while warm SSTs near 30 C, ample moisture and good upper outflow support ongoing development. 37U is forecast to reach severe tropical cyclone intensity by late Sunday or early Monday. Beyond that time, model guidance suggests continued intensification into the middle of next week, followed by possible weakening. The extent of any later weakening will depend partly on track and potential proximity to land. The steering pattern is currently balanced, with a ridge to the south and north-westerly winds to the north. At the moment the westerly motion due to the ridge is stronger, as a result Maila is moving slowly to the west. The generally balanced steering influences are expected to persist until mid next week, and Maila is forecast to wander about the Solomon Sea. From mid next week the steering pattern may become a bit complex though a mid-level ridge to the east will strengthen and will most likely take Maila towards the southwest, into the Coral Sea. However, there is considerable variation in the exact path and confidence is the longer term steering is low.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 04/1930 UTC.