Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0728 UTC 09/04/2026 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila Identifier: 37U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 8.4S Longitude: 154.6E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: west northwest (284 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots (165 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots (230 km/h) Central Pressure: 949 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 55 nm (100 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: 35 nm (35 km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm (240 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 09/1200: 8.4S 154.3E: 025 (050): 085 (155): 954 +12: 09/1800: 8.4S 154.0E: 035 (070): 085 (155): 954 +18: 10/0000: 8.5S 153.8E: 045 (085): 080 (150): 958 +24: 10/0600: 8.6S 153.5E: 050 (095): 075 (140): 963 +36: 10/1800: 9.0S 152.8E: 065 (115): 070 (130): 968 +48: 11/0600: 10.0S 152.0E: 075 (140): 065 (120): 973 +60: 11/1800: 11.2S 151.1E: 100 (185): 065 (120): 973 +72: 12/0600: 11.9S 149.8E: 120 (220): 060 (110): 977 +96: 13/0600: 12.5S 146.9E: 165 (305): 060 (110): 977 +120: 14/0600: 13.1S 143.6E: 200 (370): 050 (095): 984 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila is slowly weakening in the Solomon Sea. Maila has continued to move to the west northwest. Position is based on animated VIS/EIR imagery and recent AMSR2 microwave imagery at 0323 UTC. Weakening has been evident over the past 6 hours, with the eye disappearing from visible imagery and the cloud tops continuing to warm, and there have not been any recent bursts of deep convection. The structure of the system was based on a SAR pass at 1917 UTC and a recent AMSR2 microwave pass at 0323 UTC Intensity is assessed at 90 knots, consistent with subjective Dvorak and slightly lower than most objective guidance, but consistent with some gradual weakening of the system. Dvorak analysis was based on an eye pattern. A MG surround, and an eye adjustment of 0.5 based on an OW eye and W surrounds, yields a DT of 5.0. MET=4.0 based on a 24 hr S trend, and PT has been adjusted to 4.5. FT/CI is set at 5.0/5.5. Available objective guidance at 0600UTC (all 1-minute mean): ADT 115 knots, AiDT 103 knots and DPRINT 103 knots. DMINT (0325 UTC) 104knots, MW Sounders (0314 UTC) 108 knots, and SATCON (0400 UTC) 110 knots. Environmental conditions remain generally favourable, with good upper divergence and outflow. Vertical wind shear is moderate, at around 20 knots from the ENE. It is possible that the combined influence of the moderate vertical wind shear, upwelling due to slow motion, and the diurnally unfavourable time period have led to gradual weakening over the past 6 hours, and there is some evidence of dry air entrainment on the eastern side of the circulation. Intensity guidance remains mixed; some guidance maintains Maila as a severe cyclone until land interaction with Papua New Guinea, while others have significant weakening in the short term due to upwelling, dry air entrainment, and moderate shear. Maila is forecast to continue gradually weakening over the next day or so, and land interactions with Papua New Guinea from Friday are likely to contribute to further weakening in the short-to-medium term. A mid-level ridge building to the southwest is expected to become the dominant steering influence over the coming days. However, confidence in the track is moderate. The current forecast track is based on a non-standard model consensus, which is weighted towards the current most likely scenario of Maila being steered to the southwest over the next few days. This takes the system close to southeastern Papua New Guinea, where a prolonged period of destructive winds is possible. After passing Papua New Guinea, Maila is expected to continue generally to the west to west-southwest towards the Cape York Peninsula. There remains considerable spread in the long term track and the forward speed of the system. Impacts to the Queensland coast are possible from as early as Saturday night through to early next week, and the current spread in guidance extends from Cape York to the North Tropical Coast, though the most likely crossing remains near Coen and the Lockhart River region. An alternative scenario that recent model guidance has begun to indicate is that Maila will continue to track to the west northwest towards the southeastern parts of Papua New Guinea. In this scenario, interactions with the topography of this region cause Maila to weaken rapidly over the weekend, and dissipate into a trough in the Coral Sea early next week. If the system continues to move to the west northwest, this scenario becomes more likely and the chance of impacts to the Queensland coast decreases. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/1330 UTC.