Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1320 UTC 17/03/2026 Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle Identifier: 34U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 12.5S Longitude: 155.5E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west (263 deg) Speed of Movement: 8 knots (15 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots (140 km/h) Central Pressure: 988 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (75 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 17/1800: 12.4S 154.4E: 030 (060): 055 (100): 989 +12: 18/0000: 12.6S 153.2E: 040 (080): 060 (110): 986 +18: 18/0600: 12.8S 152.0E: 050 (090): 070 (130): 978 +24: 18/1200: 13.1S 150.9E: 050 (095): 080 (150): 970 +36: 19/0000: 13.8S 148.3E: 050 (090): 090 (165): 961 +48: 19/1200: 14.0S 145.9E: 060 (110): 100 (185): 951 +60: 20/0000: 14.2S 143.7E: 075 (140): 105 (195): 950 +72: 20/1200: 14.2S 141.3E: 090 (170): 040 (075): 999 +96: 21/1200: 14.1S 136.5E: 095 (180): 065 (120): 982 +120: 22/1200: 14.3S 131.7E: 125 (235): 030 (055): 1004 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) continues to develop and has reached category 2 intensity. Position is based on recent SAR and ASCAT-B passes with good confidence. These passes also show the improving structure of Narelle. Dvorak analysis using a curved band pattern with a 3-hour averaged wrap of 0.9 yields a DT of 3.5. A 24-hour D+ trend yields a MET of 3.0, and PT adjusted to 3.5. FT/CI is 3.5. Intensity is estimated at 55 knots, slightly higher than Dvorak suggests but supported by a 0759 SAR pass. Objective guidance at 1200 UTC (all one-minute mean); ADT 57 kn, AidT 44 kn, DPRINT 44 kn. On average objective guidance is a touch lower than intensity analysis. Environmental conditions are favourable for further intensification. An upper trough is slipping to the southeast and Narelle has moved into a region of low vertical wind shear, in the range of 5 to 10 knots. Narelle is moving under the axis of an upper anticyclone, and is expected to remain in this region with favourable low shear and good upper outflow. Other parameters remain supportive at least until landfall, including, warm sea surface temperatures of around 29 30 C, and generally deep moisture, dry air is currently remaining well to the west and is unlikely to impact development. Steady to rapid intensification is forecast until landfall. The rate of intensification may be aided from Thursday by the approach of a new upper trough which leads to an increase in upper divergence and poleward outflow. There is very good confidence is the westward tracks of Narelle, with the subtropical ridge to the south the dominating steering mechanism. There is, however, large variation in how quickly Narelle moves west across guidance, and Narelle may approach the north east Queensland coast as early as Thursday morning, which is earlier than the current most likely forecast track. This uncertainty in timing also impacts the intensification forecast, and there is a chance that Narelle either begins to interact with land and weaken earlier, or slows and intensifies more than forecast. After crossing the east Queensland Coast Narelle is expected to continue to be steered to the west by the subtropical ridge, moving back over waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria, most likely overnight Friday or during Saturday. As Narelle moves across the Cape York Peninsula it is likely to considerably weaken. Once over Gulf waters, the environment continues to be favourable and re-intensification is forecast. There is forecast to be enough time over the warm waters of the Gulf (SSTs are around 30 C), with light wind shear continuing, and sufficient deep moisture for Narelle to intensify to a severe tropical cyclone again before crossing the eastern coast of the Northern Territory. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/1930 UTC.