Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0108 UTC 09/04/2026 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila Identifier: 37U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 8.5S Longitude: 155.0E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: west northwest (284 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots (175 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots (250 km/h) Central Pressure: 947 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (205 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 55 nm (100 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (30 km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (25 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/6.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 110 nm (205 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 09/0600: 8.5S 154.7E: 025 (050): 090 (165): 951 +12: 09/1200: 8.6S 154.4E: 035 (070): 090 (165): 951 +18: 09/1800: 8.7S 154.1E: 045 (085): 090 (165): 951 +24: 10/0000: 8.8S 153.9E: 050 (095): 085 (155): 956 +36: 10/1200: 9.3S 153.3E: 070 (125): 075 (140): 966 +48: 11/0000: 10.0S 152.6E: 085 (160): 070 (130): 970 +60: 11/1200: 11.0S 151.6E: 100 (185): 065 (120): 975 +72: 12/0000: 11.8S 150.1E: 115 (215): 065 (120): 975 +96: 13/0000: 12.6S 147.5E: 140 (255): 060 (110): 979 +120: 14/0000: 13.0S 144.1E: 175 (320): 050 (095): 986 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila remains a category 4 system in the Solomon Sea. Maila has continued to move slowly to the west. Position is based on animated EIR imagery and a SAR pass at 1917 UTC with good confidence. A warm eye remains evident and has been fluctuating in clarity over the past 6 hours. While there has been some recent warming of the cloud tops, cold convection persists in the northern quadrants. The structure was based on a SAR pass at 1917 UTC. Intensity is assessed at 95 knots, consistent with subjective Dvorak and slightly lower than most objective guidance. This is consistent with some slight weakening of the system. Dvorak analysis was based on an eye pattern. A B surround, and an eye adjustment of 0.5 with an OW eye and W surrounds, yields a DT of 6.0. MET=5.5 based on a minor developing 24-hour trend, and PT=5.5. FT/CI is set at 5.5/6.0. Available objective guidance at 0020 UTC (all 1-minute mean): ADT 115 knots, AiDT 109 knots and DPRINT 112 knots. DMINT (1939 UTC) 106 knots, MW Sounders (1526 UTC) 93 knots, and SATCON (1730 UTC) 107 knots. Environmental conditions remain generally favourable. Upper divergence and outflow is good, and there is low to moderate ENE vertical wind shear. Given the slow motion of the system, there is a risk that upwelling may cause some slight weakening in the short-term. Intensity guidance remains mixed, with some solutions maintaining Maila as an intense cyclone until land interaction with Papua New Guinea, while others have significant weakening in the short term due to upwelling, dry air entrainment, and moderate shear. Intensity fluctuations are possible over the next 24 hours, however Maila is forecast to maintain its intensity or slightly weaken during Thursday. From early Friday, interaction with Papua New Guinea and slightly increased shear is likely to initiate a further gradual weakening trend. Confidence in the broad track is moderate, though confidence in the timing and longer-term intensity near Queensland is lower due to uncertainty in PNG interaction, forward speed, and the degree of vertical wind shear over the Coral Sea. A mid-level ridge building to the southwest is expected to become the dominant steering influence and should steer Maila slowly southwest to west-southwest over the next few days. This takes the system close to southeastern Papua New Guinea, where a prolonged period of destructive winds is possible. After passing PNG, Maila is expected to continue generally to the west to west-southwest towards the Cape York Peninsula. There remains considerable spread in the longer-term track and the forward speed varies markedly, with Queensland impacts possible from as early as Saturday night through to early next week. The current spread in guidance extends from Cape York to the North Tropical Coast, though the most likely crossing remains near Coen and the Lockhart River region. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/0730 UTC.