Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1858 UTC 05/04/2026 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila Identifier: 37U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 9.3S Longitude: 154.7E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: east southeast (120 deg) Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots (120 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots (165 km/h) Central Pressure: 966 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (30 km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/6HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm (295 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 06/0000: 9.5S 154.8E: 040 (080): 070 (130): 968 +12: 06/0600: 9.5S 155.1E: 050 (090): 075 (140): 965 +18: 06/1200: 9.6S 155.4E: 050 (095): 080 (150): 960 +24: 06/1800: 9.7S 155.8E: 055 (100): 085 (155): 956 +36: 07/0600: 9.9S 156.1E: 060 (110): 090 (165): 949 +48: 07/1800: 9.9S 155.8E: 065 (125): 080 (150): 959 +60: 08/0600: 9.9S 155.4E: 080 (145): 080 (150): 959 +72: 08/1800: 10.1S 154.6E: 090 (170): 075 (140): 965 +96: 09/1800: 11.1S 152.0E: 125 (225): 070 (130): 971 +120: 10/1800: 12.3S 148.4E: 155 (285): 065 (120): 976 REMARKS: Intensification of Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila has paused in the Solomon Sea. Position is based on EIR imagery with fair confidence, given the expected slow movement. There have been no recent microwave passes. An ASCAT pass at 1121 UTC sampled part of the western side of the circulation and showed gales extending to 110 nm in the northwest quadrant and 80 nm in the southwest quadrant. Recent satellite imagery shows the central dense overcast being disrupted by warmer cloud tops, suggesting consolidation has slowed. Intensity is assessed at 65 knots, biased above the subjective Dvorak estimate on the strength of the objective guidance. Dvorak analysis gives curve band of 1+ adding a 0.5 with band is white DT=4.0. MET=3.5 with a slight developing trend, with PAT indicating no adjustment. FT=4.0 (based on DT) and CI=4.0. Available objective guidance at 1700 UTC (all 1-minute mean) includes ADT 63 kn, AiDT 69 kn, DPRINT 84 kn, DMINT 84 kn (1535 UTC), MW sounders 83 kn (1443 UTC), and SATCON 78 kn (1600 UTC). Maila remains in an environment generally favourable for further intensification, with vertical wind shear below 15 knots, SSTs near 30C, ample moisture, and good upper-level outflow. However, dry-air entrainment may now be limiting further development. Recent guidance suggests dry air may wrap into the circulation from late Monday into Wednesday, which could lead to a flatter intensity trend in the short term. Despite this, most guidance still supports some further intensification through Tuesday, followed by possible weakening thereafter. The extent of any later weakening will depend on the motion of the system and whether it tracks closer to land. The steering pattern remains finely balanced, with a ridge to the south and northwesterly flow to the north, resulting in slow and at times erratic motion through about Wednesday. From mid-week, a strengthening mid-level ridge to the east is expected to steer Maila west to southwest into the Coral Sea, with increasing confidence in a track towards the Cape York Peninsula later in the week. Although some spread remains in the longer-term guidance, forecast confidence has improved. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/0130 UTC.