National

Sun 05:16 AEST

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1915 UTC 04/04/2026 Name: Tropical Cyclone Maila Identifier: 37U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 8.8S Longitude: 154.5E Location Accuracy: within 35nm (65 km) Movement Towards: west northwest (297 deg) Speed of Movement: 3 knots (6 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h) Central Pressure: 987 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm (55 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 05/0000: 9.0S 154.4E: 045 (085): 055 (100): 980 +12: 05/0600: 9.1S 154.4E: 055 (105): 060 (110): 976 +18: 05/1200: 9.2S 154.5E: 065 (120): 065 (120): 972 +24: 05/1800: 9.3S 154.5E: 065 (125): 070 (130): 968 +36: 06/0600: 9.6S 154.9E: 075 (135): 080 (150): 960 +48: 06/1800: 9.8S 155.4E: 075 (140): 085 (155): 955 +60: 07/0600: 9.9S 155.7E: 075 (140): 085 (155): 954 +72: 07/1800: 9.9S 155.8E: 085 (155): 080 (150): 958 +96: 08/1800: 10.2S 155.6E: 140 (260): 075 (140): 963 +120: 09/1800: 11.1S 154.1E: 190 (350): 070 (130): 969 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Maila continues to develop in the Solomon Sea. Position is based on IR satellite imagery with some assistance from OSCAT imagery at 1402UTC and ATMS microwave imagery at 1531 UTC, with fair confidence. The centre of Maila is now analysed under the deep convection with cirrus fanning evident, and imagery suggesting wind shear has eased over recent hours. Dvorak analysis gives DT = 3.5 from a shear pattern or 3.0 using a curved band. MET = 3.0 and no PT adjustment; FT/CI is set at 3.0/3.0. Available objective guidance at 1720 UTC (all 1-min mean); ADT 59 kn, AiDT 43 kn, DPRINT 49 kn, DMINT (1503 UTC) 52 kn, MW sounders (1501 UTC) 52 kn, and SATCON (1600 UTC) 49 kn. Intensity is assessed at 45 knots, based on the collection of objective guidance and this agrees with Dvorak. Environmental conditions are favourable for further intensification. Easterly vertical wind shear is still present, though has started to relax (CIMSS analysis 14 kn at 1200 UTC). This shear is expected to weaken further as the upper trough to the southeast moves away, while warm SSTs near 30 C, ample moisture and good upper outflow support ongoing development. 37U is forecast to reach severe tropical cyclone intensity tonight or early Monday morning. Beyond that time, model guidance suggests continued intensification into the middle of next week, followed by possible weakening. The extent of any later weakening will depend partly on track and potential proximity to land. The steering pattern is currently balanced, with a ridge to the south and north-westerly winds to the north. At the moment the westerly motion due to the ridge is stronger, as a result Maila has been moving slowly to the west. However, during today slow varied motion is anticipated. The generally balanced steering influences are expected to persist until mid week, and Maila is forecast to wander about the Solomon Sea. From mid week the steering pattern may become more complex. A mid-level ridge to the east will strengthen and will most likely take Maila towards the southwest, into the Coral Sea. However, there is considerable variation in the exact path and confidence is the longer term steering is low. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/0130 UTC.