Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1910 UTC 25/03/2026 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle Identifier: 34U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 18.3S Longitude: 117.0E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (252 deg) Speed of Movement: 10 knots (19 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h) Central Pressure: 959 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (205 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (30 km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (50 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS SST:D1.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 190 nm (350 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 26/0000: 18.8S 116.1E: 030 (060): 085 (155): 954 +12: 26/0600: 19.5S 115.1E: 040 (080): 095 (175): 945 +18: 26/1200: 20.2S 114.3E: 040 (080): 100 (185): 939 +24: 26/1800: 21.0S 113.5E: 040 (075): 105 (195): 934 +36: 27/0600: 23.5S 113.2E: 045 (085): 095 (175): 945 +48: 27/1800: 26.8S 114.1E: 070 (125): 060 (110): 975 +60: 28/0600: 31.3S 117.6E: 100 (185): 040 (075): 989 +72: 28/1800: 35.8S 121.2E: 115 (210): 030 (055): 993 +96: 29/1800: None None: None (None): None (None): None +120: 30/1800: None None: None (None): None (None): None REMARKS: Narelle's satellite signature has improved over the last 6 hours and it is now possible to consistently apply an eye pattern analysis, albeit for a large and ragged eye. Location was estimated from radar (partial coverage) and animated IR imagery with moderate confidence. Dvorak analysis: Over the last 3 hours DT=5/5.5 using an eye pattern with a B/W surrounding ring and a 0.5 Eye adj. MET is 4.0 based on a D+ trend. PAT is adjusted to 4.5. FT is based on DT but constrained to 5.0 to be within 1 of MET. Recent objective guidance at 1730 UTC: (1-min means): ADT 119 kn, AiDT 106 kn, DPRINT 94 kn, SATCON 108 kn. ADT and AiDT have previously been higher than other estimates but although ADT still appears to be too high, estimates from other aids are steadily increasing. Intensity is analysed at 80 knots (10-min), consistent with DPRINT and subjective Dvorak and within error bounds of other estimates. Environmental conditions are generally favourable for development. SSTs around 29 30 C persist along Narelle s track off the Pilbara coast but reduce as Narelle turns and tracks south past Exmouth, dropping below 26 C roughly south of Shark Bay. CIMSS AMV analysis shows good upper outflow and divergence around the system, particularly on the poleward side. Deep layer wind shear is analysed around 10 to 15 knots easterly. AIRI guidance suggests a strong probability of rapid intensification over the next 24 to 36 hours. Intensification above the standard rate is therefore forecast, peaking at category 4 (105 knots) on Friday morning. A peak intensity of Category 5 is possible. As Narelle moves south down the west coast of Western Australia it is likely to begin to weaken due to cooler SSTs and increased wind shear, plus proximity to the coast itself. The system is likely to impact the west coast of Western Australia as a severe tropical cyclone and then weaken as it moves inland across the southwest of WA. Narelle is being steered to the west southwest by a mid-level ridge located over central Australia. By late Thursday a mid level trough in the Indian Ocean becomes the more influential factor and Narelle is expected to be steered south down the west coast during Friday and then south southeast across the South West Land Division during Saturday. There is high confidence in this track but timing (speed along the track) remains more uncertain. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0130 UTC.