Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0149 UTC 24/03/2026 Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle Identifier: 34U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 15.2S Longitude: 124.5E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (250 deg) Speed of Movement: 11 knots (20 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 992 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: None nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS STT D1.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 170 nm (315 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 24/0600: 15.7S 123.5E: 035 (065): 035 (065): 995 +12: 24/1200: 16.1S 122.4E: 045 (085): 045 (080): 991 +18: 24/1800: 16.6S 121.2E: 050 (090): 045 (085): 990 +24: 25/0000: 17.0S 120.1E: 050 (090): 050 (095): 987 +36: 25/1200: 17.8S 117.8E: 040 (075): 065 (120): 976 +48: 26/0000: 18.6S 115.7E: 050 (090): 085 (155): 955 +60: 26/1200: 19.7S 113.7E: 060 (110): 100 (185): 941 +72: 27/0000: 21.3S 112.3E: 075 (135): 095 (175): 944 +96: 28/0000: 26.7S 112.9E: 120 (220): 065 (120): 971 +120: 29/0000: 34.6S 118.9E: 210 (395): 030 (055): 994 REMARKS: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle is moving offshore off the northwest Kimberley coast. Position is estimated using microwave and animated Vis imagery with reasonable confidence. Narelle has maintained very good convective structure throughout its traverse across northern Australia and is moved back over water with deep convection north of the centre with improving curvature. Intensity 35 kn with gales estimated in northern quadrants. Dvorak analysis: DT=2.0 usng a curved band pattern with wrap of 0.3. No MET. FT/CI=2.0. Limited objective guidance is available, (1-min means): DPRINT (2250UTC) 37 kn. Environmental conditions are mostly favourable for development until late week or over the weekend. Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of around 29 30 C are present off the Kimberley coast, and persist along Narelle s track off the Pilbara coast. SSTs get cooler as Narelle turns and tracks south past Exmouth, dropping below 26 C roughly south of Shark Bay. Good equatorward outflow is presence and good upper divergence. An upper trough lies a long way to the southwest of Narelle, and may assist Narelle's intensification as it gets closer. Deep moisture is present and expected to remain until late week when dry air begins wrapping around the system from the west. Narelle is located on the northwest side of an upper anticyclone, under easterly vertical wind shear (CIMSS analysis at 0000 UTC 15-20 knots). Narelle forecast to remain in moderate shear, however, NWP guidance indicates that this will not significantly inhibiting intensification. Redevelopment to a tropical cyclone is expected tonight with intensification is expected to continue overnight Thursday into Friday morning to category 4 intensity (100 kn). Narelle is following the northwest side of a mid-level anticyclone to the south, tracking to the west southwest. By late week the anticyclone moves further east and an approaching upper trough aids in a more southerly then southeasterly path. The most likely scenario is a track down the west coast making a crossing point highly uncertain. Gradual weakening is then expected as the environment starts to become less favourable however Narelle may remain at severe TC intensity south to the Shark Bay region and at cyclone intensity towards the Lower West coast north of Perth. Although the guidance is more confident for this type of scenario moving down the west coast the timing does vary considerably. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0730 UTC.