Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Northern Territory Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1909 UTC 20/03/2026 Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle Identifier: 34U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 13.2S Longitude: 140.1E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west (275 deg) Speed of Movement: 11 knots (20 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h) Central Pressure: 980 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/W2.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 21/0000: 13.2S 139.0E: 030 (060): 065 (120): 976 +12: 21/0600: 13.3S 138.1E: 035 (070): 075 (140): 967 +18: 21/1200: 13.3S 137.1E: 035 (070): 075 (140): 968 +24: 21/1800: 13.5S 136.0E: 035 (065): 060 (110): 979 +36: 22/0600: 13.7S 133.6E: 045 (080): 030 (055): 998 +48: 22/1800: 13.8S 131.0E: 050 (095): 030 (055): 998 +60: 23/0600: 14.2S 128.6E: 050 (095): 035 (065): 995 +72: 23/1800: 14.5S 126.1E: 065 (120): 030 (055): 998 +96: 24/1800: 15.6S 121.9E: 085 (160): 040 (075): 992 +120: 25/1800: 16.3S 117.4E: 110 (210): 060 (110): 979 REMARKS: Narelle is moving westwards across the Gulf of Carpentaria and is forecast to re-intensify before landfall The centre is just trackable on Weipa radar with reasonable confidence. Over the past few hours Narelle has shown slow development, with a slight improvement in curved band wrapping, though the system remains under strong easterly deep-layer shear. Dvorak analysis: curve band wrapping around 0.7 giving a 3.0. FT/CI = 3.0. Objective aids at 1730 UTC (1-min means): ADT 72 kn, AiDT 60 kn, DPRINT 42 kn, DMINT (1537 UTC) 44 kn, MW sounders (1536UTC) 69 kn and SATCON (1730UTC) 66 kn. Some caution is applied to the Dvorak estimate due to the recent passage over land. Current intensity is set at 60 kn, biased towards SATCON. CIMMS wind shear analysis at 1800 UTC shows upper easterlies over the system contributing to an analysed deep layer wind shear of around 20 to 25 knots. The environment remains marginally favourable due to the warm SSTs and high moisture along the track. Conditions are forecast to remain similar as Narelle tracks westwards with the system lying near the northern periphery of the upper ridge. Most NWP guidance suggests reintensification and category 3 strength is forecast prior to landfall on the eastern Northern Territory coast on Saturday night. A small amount of guidance indicates a slight chance of Narelle briefly reaching category 4 intensity before landfall. A strong mid-level ridge extending across Australia into the Coral Sea will remain the dominant steering mechanism for Narelle well into next week. There is high confidence in a westward forecast track across northern Australia. Following landfall over the Northern Territory overnight on Saturday, Narelle will then move across the Top End and off the Kimberley coast next week, where redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is again likely. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0130 UTC.