Extremely heavy daily rainfall totals have again been recorded in South East Queensland in the 24 hours to 9 am (AEST) Friday, with numerous October records broken.
The good news for locals is that rain has eased off this Friday in most areas which received a heavy soaking in the last 48 hours, however rain and persistent heavy showers again look likely on Saturday.
300 mm in 48 hours at multiple locations
At least eight weather stations recorded huge 48-hour rainfall totals exceeding 300 mm from 9 am on Wednesday, October 21, to 9 am this Friday, October 23.
All were recorded just north of Brisbane in the catchments of the Pine and Caboolture rivers, and in all cases, the rain was heavier on Friday than Thursday.
They included:
343mm at Sheep Station Creek, including 263mm on Thursday
339mm at Caboolture (WTP), including 263mm on Thursday
331mm at Morayfield (Williamson Rd), including 249mm on Thursday
324mm at Caboolture (Short St), including 250mm on Thursday
317mm at Narangba (Oakey Flat Rd), including 236mm on Thursday
316mm at Caboolture (Machinery Rd), including 247mm on Thursday
311mm at Round Mt Reservoir, including 247mm on Thursday
305mm at Elimbah (Rose Creek Rd), including 241mm on Thursday
It's also worth noting that very heavy rainfall wasn't confined to the SE corner of the state.
A huge 24-hour total of 207.8 mm was recorded at a weather gauge at Blackwood Tableland, about 200 km west of Rockhampton in the Central Highlands district.
Nearby Mt Panorama received 74 mm in just 2 hours around dawn this morning.
Records tumble for October monthly rainfall totals
Winter is the driest time of year across South East Queensland, while late spring through to early autumn is the wettest period.
October can go either way. While it can be very dry, in some years weather systems laden with tropical moisture cross the region. That's what we've seen this week and there's more moisture to come.
But even before more widespread rain develops on Saturday, monthly records have been broken at locations including:
Nambour, where the running monthly rainfall total of 401 mm to 9 am Friday has broken the old October record of 370.6 mm in records going back to 1952.
Beerburrum, where the running monthly rainfall total of 354.2 mm to 9 am Friday has broken the old October record of 311.5 mm in records going all the way back to 1898.
Why were the last 48 hours so wet?
As Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino explained, all three key ingredients needed for heavy rain and thunderstorms – moisture, atmospheric instability and a trigger – have been present over South East Queensland in recent days.
Two separate moisture sources have been converging over eastern Australia this week – one flowing across Australia from the Indian Ocean, and one from the east, transporting atmospheric moisture from the Coral and Tasman Seas towards eastern Australia.
The trigger mechanism was provided by a series of troughs, as well as by terrain features (like hills and mountains) which have forced air to rise.
Atmospheric instability was provided by a slow-moving upper-level low pressure system located over northern NSW on Thursday. This system was associated with a pool of relatively cold air which encouraged the warmer air below it to lift, creating clouds that produced heavy rain and thunderstorms.
The whole system was also very slow moving, which meant that heavy rain was able to accumulate over a reasonably short time frame in some areas, especially on Friday.
Why is this Friday comparatively dry before more rain arrives on Saturday?
Image: Much less rain evident on the radar over SE Queensland despite widespread cloud visible by satellite at 10:30 am (AEST) on Friday, October 23, 2026. Source: Weatherzone.
As Ben Domensino explained, a weather balloon released from Brisbane Airport on Thursday morning showed that the atmosphere was loaded with moisture from the ground all the way up to about 9 km above the surface.
That deep layer of atmospheric moisture provided ample fuel for sustained and heavy rainfall.
"The reason the moisture has backed off for now on Friday is because the mid-levels have become drier than yesterday and there is less convergence occurring over South East Queensland, Domensino added.
"However it looks like more moisture will return on Saturday, which could allow rain to reintensify."
Please check your local SES in Queensland and NSW for emergency information as this dangerous weather event continues, and remember to check the Weatherzone warnings page for the latest weather warnings and flood alerts.