Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0717 UTC 24/03/2026 Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle Identifier: 34U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 15.7S Longitude: 123.9E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (245 deg) Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 991 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: None nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 24/1200: 16.1S 122.8E: 030 (060): 040 (075): 989 +12: 24/1800: 16.5S 121.6E: 040 (080): 045 (085): 988 +18: 25/0000: 17.0S 120.3E: 045 (085): 050 (095): 986 +24: 25/0600: 17.5S 119.2E: 045 (080): 055 (100): 982 +36: 25/1800: 18.3S 117.0E: 040 (075): 075 (140): 964 +48: 26/0600: 19.3S 114.9E: 050 (090): 090 (165): 948 +60: 26/1800: 20.7S 113.3E: 060 (110): 100 (185): 942 +72: 27/0600: 22.8S 112.6E: 075 (140): 090 (165): 949 +96: 28/0600: 29.7S 115.4E: 125 (225): 050 (095): 978 +120: 29/0600: 36.7S 121.6E: 225 (415): 030 (055): 992 REMARKS: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle has moved offshore of the northwest Kimberley coast. Position is estimated using microwave and animated Vis imagery with reasonable confidence. Deep convection is evident north of the centre. Intensity 35 kn with gales estimated in northern quadrants assisted by OSCAT at 0330UTC. Dvorak analysis: DT=2.5 usng a curved band pattern with wrap of 0.4. No MET. FT/CI=2.5. Objective guidance: (1-min means): DPRINT (2250UTC) 37 kn, DMINT 0454UTC 44 kn; and SATCON (0540UTC) 45 kn, (ADT unavailable). Environmental conditions are mostly favourable for development - SSTs around 29 30 C persist along Narelle s track off the Pilbara coast but reduce as Narelle turns and tracks south past Exmouth, dropping below 26 C roughly south of Shark Bay; strong equatorward outflow and upper divergence and deep moisture. An upper trough lies a long way to the southwest of Narelle, and may assist Narelle's intensification as it gets closer. . Narelle is located on the northwest side of an upper anticyclone, under easterly vertical wind shear (CIMSS analysis at 0600 UTC 15-20 knots). Narelle forecast to remain in moderate shear in the next few days, however, NWP guidance indicates that this will not significantly inhibiting intensification. Redevelopment to a tropical cyclone is expected tonight with intensification is expected to continue Wednesday and Thursday to category 4 intensity (100 kn). Narelle is following the northwest side of a mid-level anticyclone to the south, tracking to the west southwest. By Friday the anticyclone moves further east and an approaching upper trough aids in a more southerly then southeasterly path. The most likely scenario is a track down the west coast. Gradual weakening is then expected as the environment starts to become less favourable, however Narelle may remain at severe TC intensity south to the Shark Bay region and at cyclone intensity further south towards Perth. Although the guidance is more confident for this type of scenario moving down the west coast the timing does vary considerably. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1330 UTC.