Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0108 UTC 17/03/2026 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 34U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 12.3S Longitude: 157.1E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: west (270 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 1002 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm (405 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 17/0600: 12.6S 156.1E: 040 (080): 040 (075): 1004 +12: 17/1200: 12.7S 155.1E: 050 (095): 040 (075): 1001 +18: 17/1800: 12.7S 154.0E: 060 (110): 040 (075): 1001 +24: 18/0000: 12.9S 152.8E: 065 (120): 040 (075): 999 +36: 18/1200: 13.2S 150.4E: 075 (135): 050 (095): 993 +48: 19/0000: 13.6S 147.9E: 075 (140): 055 (100): 989 +60: 19/1200: 13.7S 145.8E: 080 (150): 065 (120): 982 +72: 20/0000: 14.0S 143.7E: 100 (185): 080 (150): 969 +96: 21/0000: 13.9S 139.1E: 105 (200): 055 (100): 989 +120: 22/0000: 13.9S 134.6E: 135 (250): 040 (075): 998 REMARKS: Tropical Low 34U continues to develop in the northern Coral Sea, currently located south of the Solomon Islands and has been moving slowly west. Position is based on visible satellite imagery and ASCAT at 2239 UTC. 34U has shown improved convection, and improved curvature, particularly in the last few hours. Dvorak analysis using a curved band pattern with a 3-hour averaged wrap of 0.3-0.4 yields a DT of 2.0. A 24-hour D trend yields a MET of 2.5, and PT adjusted to 2.0. FT and CI are 2.0. Intensity is estimated at 40 knots based on ASCAT. ASCAT shows gales are occurring in eastern quadrants, though they do not currently extend more than halfway around, which is required to be defined as a tropical cyclone in the Australian region. Objective guidance is not available at this time. Environmental conditions are generally favourable. However, an upper trough, which yesterday and overnight enhanced upper outflow and upper divergence, is slipping to the southeast. Other parameters remain supportive at least until landfall, including, warm sea surface temperatures of around 29 30 C, and generally deep moisture, though dry air to the west may have some impact on development. 34U is located on the northeastern side of an upper anticyclone and has been impacted by moderate 20 knots of vertical wind shear, however, wind shear is expected to ease as 34U moves under the axis of the upper anticyclone. Only slight intensification is expected today, with 34U expected to be classified as a tropical cyclone when gales extend into all quadrants overnight tonight. The rate of intensification increases from Thursday, ahead of the approach of a new upper trough which leads to an increase in upper divergence and poleward outflow, and 34U is expected to become a severe tropical cyclone. There is very good confidence is the westward tracks of 34U, with the subtropical ridge to the south dominating. There is, however, large variation in how quickly 34U moves west across guidance. A more intense system may be slightly further south, and 34U may approach the north east Queensland coast as early as Wednesday night, this is earlier than the current most likely forecast track. After crossing the east Queensland Coast 34U is expected to continue to be steered to the west by the subtropical ridge, moving back over waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria, most likely overnight Friday or during Saturday. As 34U moves across the Cape York Peninsula it is likely to considerably weaken. Once over Gulf waters, the environment continues to be favourable and re-intensification is forecast. There may be enough time over the warm waters of the Gulf (SSTs are around 30 C), with light wind shear continuing, and sufficient deep moisture for 34U to intensify to a severe tropical cyclone again before crossing the eastern coast of the Northern Territory. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0730 UTC.