Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1834 UTC 08/02/2026 Name: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell Identifier: 21U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 22.2S Longitude: 113.7E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: southwest (226 deg) Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h) Central Pressure: 976 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 95 nm (175 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (120 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 65 nm (120 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 170 nm (315 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 09/0000: 23.1S 113.4E: 025 (050): 060 (110): 977 +12: 09/0600: 24.1S 113.5E: 035 (070): 060 (110): 976 +18: 09/1200: 25.1S 113.8E: 045 (080): 050 (095): 984 +24: 09/1800: 26.1S 114.4E: 050 (090): 040 (075): 991 +36: 10/0600: 28.3S 116.9E: 060 (115): 035 (065): 994 +48: 10/1800: 28.7S 120.1E: 075 (140): 025 (045): 1000 +60: 11/0600: None None: None (None): None (None): None +72: 11/1800: None None: None (None): None (None): None +96: 12/1800: None None: None (None): None (None): None +120: 13/1800: None None: None (None): None (None): None REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Mitchell near the North West Cape of Western Australia being tracked on Learmonth radar. Strong deep convection has been decreasing in the north, but does remains strong in the southwest quadrant. This reflects the ongoing moderate northeasterly wind shear. Intensity 60 kn, consistent with the subjective Dvorak estimate. Dvorak Analysis: DT=4.0 using embedded centre (MG) pattern; MET is 3.0, based on a W+ 24-hour trend and PAT 3.5 with a 0.5 adjustment. FT 3.5. CI held at 4.0 with weakening having started again after small increase DT about 6 hours ago. Latest Objective guidance (1-minute mean) at 1700UTC: ADT 51 kn, AiDT 45 kn, DPRINT 54 kn. Observations at Learmonth Airport have been reporting mean winds of 40 45 kn since 1500 UTC. CIMSS upper-level wind analysis estimates deep-layer vertical wind shear northeasterly around 22 kn (12 UTC). Otherwise Mitchell remains in a generally favourable environment, sea surface temperatures are 28 C and upper-level divergence remains strong, particularly on the southern side of the circulation, supported by persistent poleward outflow. The intensity is forecast to remain at around 60 kn in the short term as it moves south along the Ningaloo coast of WA's upper west coast this morning and then weaken only slightly as it moves further south. The drop in ocean temperatures and proximity to land will be offset by a reduction in wind shear and increase in upper divergence. The system is expected to move southeast and weaken over land on Tuesday. Mitchell is now being steered south southwestward along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge located to the east. A mid-level trough will approach from the southwest will assist in turning Mitchell to a more southerly path. Later Monday the trough will begin to steer Mitchell to the southeast and move it across inland WA. The current forecast takes it along the west coast, but there is still the possibility the system stays west of the coast over water for longer during Monday which would extend the longevity of the system and a more likely impact to areas such as Shark Bay/Denham. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/0130 UTC.