Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1910 UTC 18/03/2026 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle Identifier: 34U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 13.2S Longitude: 149.4E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (257 deg) Speed of Movement: 12 knots (22 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots (165 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots (230 km/h) Central Pressure: 957 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm (65 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm (25 km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (20 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 170 nm (315 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 19/0000: 13.5S 148.1E: 025 (050): 100 (185): 947 +12: 19/0600: 13.6S 146.8E: 035 (070): 105 (195): 942 +18: 19/1200: 13.5S 145.7E: 045 (085): 105 (195): 941 +24: 19/1800: 13.5S 144.7E: 050 (090): 105 (195): 941 +36: 20/0600: 13.5S 142.7E: 060 (115): 060 (110): 981 +48: 20/1800: 13.4S 140.4E: 065 (120): 055 (100): 985 +60: 21/0600: 13.5S 138.1E: 065 (125): 070 (130): 974 +72: 21/1800: 13.5S 135.8E: 070 (135): 055 (100): 985 +96: 22/1800: 13.7S 131.9E: 090 (165): 030 (055): 999 +120: 23/1800: 14.2S 128.5E: 095 (175): 030 (055): 999 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (34U) has intensified to a category 4 system and is maintaining a steady west southwest track. Animated IR imagery indicates that Narelle has formed an eye, and the analysis position has been assessed with high confidence. The analysis position also agrees with an earlier OSCAT scatterometry pass at 1346 UTC, and with recent GMI microwave imagery at 1828 UTC. As mentioned, an eye has formed and an eye pattern yields a DT of 5.5 with a surrounding grey shade of CMG, an eye temperature of W and a surrounding ring of CMG. MET is 5.0 based on a D+ trend, with PAT being adjusted up to 5.5. FT/CI are both 5.5. Objective analysis aids for 1800 UTC (1-min means): ADT 79 kt, AiDT 91 kt, DPRINT 105 kt, DMINT (1523UTC) 96 kt and SATCON 99 kt. Intensity is set at 90 kt, based on subjective Dvorak and objective aids. CIMMS wind shear analysis at 1200 UTC indicated 19 kt of shear from the east northeast, however Narelle has continued to steadily intensify over the past 6 hours with lightning activity beginning to occur around the eye. It remains over very warm sea surface temperatures above 28 degrees C, and there has been no indication that dry air to the west has impacted the system. Steady intensification is forecast until the system nears the coast which may be aided by the approach of a new upper trough during Thursday, leading to an increase in upper divergence and poleward outflow. A peak intensity of high-end category 4 is forecast, with further intensification to category 5 possible. There is very good confidence in the westward tracks of Narelle, with the subtropical ridge to the south the dominating steering mechanism. There remains, however, some variation in how quickly Narelle moves west, and Narelle may approach the north east Queensland coast as early as late Thursday evening, which is earlier than the current most likely forecast track. After crossing the east Queensland Coast Narelle is expected to continue to be steered to the west by the subtropical ridge, moving back over waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria, most likely overnight Friday or during Saturday. As Narelle moves across the Cape York Peninsula it is likely to temporarily weaken, before entering the Gulf of Carpentaria as a category 2 system. Re-intensification is forecast in a favourable environment over the Gulf waters, with SSTs around 30 degrees C, sufficient deep moisture, and moderate wind shear. Narelle is forecast to intensify to severe tropical cyclone intensity again before crossing the eastern coast of the Northern Territory over the weekend. After crossing the Northern Territory coast, Narelle is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity and continue to track westwards, moving across the Top End and then the Kimberley as a tropical low. It is expected to move off the Kimberley coast early to mid next week where it is forecast to re-intensity into a tropical cyclone. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0130 UTC.